Scenarios Following Sinwar’s Death… Who Will Govern Gaza?

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The killing of Yahya Sinwar, the powerful Hamas leader and architect of the “Al-Aqsa Flood” operation, has opened the door to various scenarios for governance in Gaza after the conflict ends, as Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu maintains his refusal to allow any Palestinian administration in the territory, amidst warnings of a plan to reoccupy Gaza.

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Palestinians assert that determining the future of the region is a matter solely for them and that they will not accept any foreign interference, following the circulation of several names to participate in the post-war governance of Gaza.

Israel excludes any presence of Hamas in Gaza’s governance after the war, but insists it does not want to manage Gaza itself. Extreme right-wing figures in Israel, including members of the government, propose the return of settlements that were removed from the territory after the Israeli withdrawal in 2005.

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Recently, an Israeli security source stated that “the army will remain there as long as necessary… Once security is assured, it will be time to think about the next step,” confirming that “the current goal is not to control Gaza.”

Several Israeli media outlets have reported on the potential involvement of international forces in the post-war phase, without specifying whether this would be for overseeing financial aid for the reconstruction of the region or for military presence.

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Countries such as Saudi Arabia, Egypt, the UAE, the United States, and the European Union have been mentioned as potential participants in this force, although it remains unclear what the conditions would be for such involvement.

The Palestinian Authority, led by Mahmoud Abbas, is striving to have a presence in the Gaza Strip, as it is present through local municipalities where its government employees still work.

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A Hamas leader stated that the movement agrees to the formation of an independent Palestinian “technocratic” government, in which it will not participate after the war, provided there is consultation with Hamas regarding the composition.

Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas recently asserted that the Gaza Strip is an integral part of the Palestinian state and falls under its responsibility, rejecting any measure that could lead to the separation of Gaza from the West Bank.

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Mohammed Shihada from the European Council on Foreign Relations emphasizes that the Palestinian Authority “will not be able to operate in Gaza without Hamas,” referring to the large number of government employees working in the territory since 2007 and the support Hamas enjoys among a broad segment of the population.

At the same time, discussions continue regarding the reopening of the Rafah crossing between Gaza and Egypt, which is currently under informal Israeli military control, in cooperation with foreign partners, including the European Union, whose officials were previously stationed there.

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If the Palestinian Authority can establish its presence at the crossing, it may be able to access Gaza City without being accused of entering on an “Israeli tank.”

A European diplomat in Israel stated, “We have just begun the difficult discussions on the beginning of the end,” adding that “Israelis express a desire to see Palestinian leaders emerge, but they seek to achieve this outside existing Palestinian political channels.”

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Multiple diplomatic sources have confirmed that the possibility of foreign countries or private security firms, such as Constellis, formerly known as Blackwater, ensuring security in the region is a purely hypothetical scenario.

Shihada points out that Arab countries are hesitant because they “recognize that the sight of their forces confronting armed Palestinian resistance will not be well received among their populations.”

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Researcher Xavier Guignard, specializing in the Palestinian territories, believes that “no one wants to be at the center of a complex reconstruction process with numerous security and political issues, and no one wants to be a donor to the Israelis.”

He emphasizes that the search for a governance system in Gaza is premature as long as the Israeli army is present, clarifying that “this is a military occupation, and we cannot know how long it will last.”

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According to opinion polls, Israelis oppose the establishment of a Palestinian state more than ever, and they are not inclined, according to experts, to prefer the return of the Palestinian Authority.

Guignard explains that “a strengthened Palestinian Authority presence in Gaza would be a natural response but would be a red line for Israelis, resembling a political solution that allows for the reunification of Gaza and the West Bank.”

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