Some Progress in Gaza Negotiations without Reaching an Agreement

Biden Optimistic About a Possible Exchange of Detainees and Holds Hamas Responsible for Blocking the Agreement.

11th January 2025

6 minutes read

Some Progress in Gaza Negotiations without Reaching an Agreement

Palestinian sources close to the ceasefire talks in Gaza said on Thursday that American and Arab mediators had made some progress in their efforts to broker an agreement between Israel and Hamas, but not enough to finalize a deal.

Palestinian paramedics reported that while talks continued in Qatar, the Israeli military carried out strikes across the Gaza Strip, killing at least 23 people on Thursday.

The Ministry of Health announced that the death toll from Israeli airstrikes on Gaza in the past 24 hours had risen to 76.

Qatar, the United States, and Egypt are making significant efforts to secure an agreement to end the 15-month conflict and release the remaining hostages held by Hamas before U.S. President Joe Biden leaves office.

Biden told reporters at the White House, “We are making some real progress… and I am still optimistic that we will be able to conduct a detainee exchange,” adding that Hamas was obstructing it. He mentioned that he met with the negotiators on Thursday.

Incoming President Donald Trump warned that “the gates of hell will open wide” if the hostages are not released by his inauguration on January 20.

A Palestinian official close to the mediation efforts said on Thursday that the lack of an agreement so far does not mean that the talks are not progressing, adding that these are the most serious attempts yet to reach an agreement.

He added, “There are intense negotiations, with mediators and negotiators discussing every word and detail. There has been progress when it comes to narrowing existing gaps, but no agreement yet.” He did not provide further details.

Another Palestinian official, who requested anonymity due to the sensitivity of the talks, confirmed that progress had been made on some negotiation files between Hamas and Israel but noted a new Israeli condition that could undermine the potential for an agreement.

He added, “Israel still insists on maintaining a 1000-meter buffer along the eastern and northern borders of Gaza, which hinders the return of citizens to their homes and represents a reversal of what was agreed upon last July, further complicating the path to an agreement. Mediators are working to persuade Israel to return to the previous agreement.”

On Tuesday, Israel stated that it is fully committed to securing an agreement to bring back the hostages from Gaza but faces obstacles from Hamas.

For a year, both sides have remained at an impasse over two main issues, with Hamas saying it will not release the remaining hostages unless Israel agrees to end the war and withdraw all of its forces from Gaza. Israel insists it will not end the war until Hamas is eradicated and all hostages are freed.

Among the casualties of Thursday’s Israeli airstrikes, eight Palestinians were killed in a house in Jabaliya, one of Gaza’s largest refugee camps, where Israeli forces have been operating for more than three months.

Health sector officials said that nine other people, including a father and his three children, were killed in two airstrikes on two houses in central Gaza.

Later in the day, dozens of citizens gathered at the Deir al-Balah hospital in central Gaza to bury their loved ones who were killed, carrying their bodies wrapped in white shrouds to their graves.

Adil al-Mansy, a Gaza resident, said, “There is no security in the country, neither for children, nor for women, nor for the elderly, nor even for stones, trees, animals, or birds. Everyone is being targeted without prior warning.”

Later in the day, paramedics reported that six Palestinians had been killed in two separate airstrikes, including four in a school sheltering displaced families near Jabaliya in northern Gaza.

In a speech read by one of his assistants, Pope Francis stepped up his criticism of Israel’s military campaign in Gaza, describing the humanitarian situation in Gaza as “severe and shameful.”

He added, “We cannot accept that children freeze to death due to the destruction of hospitals or the bombings of the power grid.”

Israel denies blocking humanitarian aid to Gaza. However, Palestinian health officials reported that more than 46,000 Palestinians have been killed in the war in Gaza. Humanitarian agencies say large areas of the territory have been reduced to rubble, with most of Gaza’s 2.1 million residents displaced multiple times and facing a severe shortage of food and medical supplies.

Israel launched its offensive against Gaza after Hamas fighters invaded towns and communities in southern Israel on October 7, 2023, killing 1,200 people and capturing more than 250 hostages, according to Israeli figures.

A study published on Thursday revealed that official Palestinian death toll figures from the war could be underestimated by about 41% as of mid-2024 due to the collapse of Gaza’s healthcare infrastructure.

The statistical analysis, which has been peer-reviewed and published in The Lancet, was conducted by academics from the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Yale University, and other institutions.

Using a statistical methodology called capture-recapture analysis, researchers sought to assess the number of deaths resulting from the Israeli air and ground campaign in Gaza during the first nine months of the war, from October 2023 to the end of June 2024.

The study estimated the number of deaths due to sudden, severe injuries during this period at around 64,260, which is about 41% higher than the official figure provided by the Palestinian Ministry of Health. The study found that 59.1% of the victims were women, children, and people over the age of 65. The study did not provide an estimate for the number of Palestinian fighters among the deceased.

The latest statistics released by Palestinian health officials report over 46,000 deaths in the Gaza war.

The study, published in The Lancet, revealed that the Palestinian Ministry of Health’s ability to maintain electronic death records, which had been reliable in the past, deteriorated due to the Israeli military campaign, which included raids on hospitals and other healthcare facilities and interruptions to digital communications.

Israel claims it is doing everything possible to avoid civilian casualties and accuses Hamas of using hospitals as cover for its operations, a charge the armed group denies.

Reports circulating indicate that a large number of casualties are still buried under the rubble of destroyed buildings and have therefore not been included in some statistics.

To better assess these gaps, the Lancet study employed a method previously used to assess deaths in other conflict zones, including Kosovo and Sudan.

Using data from at least two independent sources, researchers look for individuals who appear in multiple casualty lists. A low overlap between lists suggests a higher number of unrecorded deaths, and this information can be used to estimate the total death toll.

For the Gaza study, researchers compared the official death toll released by the Palestinian Ministry of Health, which in the early months of the war relied entirely on bodies arriving at hospitals but later included other methods: an online audit distributed by the Ministry of Health to Palestinians inside and outside Gaza, asking them to provide data such as Palestinian ID numbers, names, age at death, gender, place of death, and the entity reporting the death, as well as obituaries posted on social media.

Zina Jamaleddine, the lead collaborator on the study, told Reuters, “Our research revealed a shocking truth: the actual number of deaths from sudden, severe injuries in Gaza is higher than what is reported in the reports.”