Will al-Assad’s Regime Collapse Help ISIS Expand in Africa?

16th January 2025

2 minutes read

Will al-Assad's Regime Collapse Help ISIS Expand in Africa?

The sudden collapse of Bashar al-Assad‘s regime on December 8 provided an opportunity for ISIS to seize weapon stockpiles and equipment abandoned by the army and loyalist groups. This is reflected in the resurgence of ISIS cells from the depths of the Syrian desert, launching surprise attacks with light and medium weapons against the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) in Deir ez-Zor.

The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights reported on Tuesday that this attack was one of five operations carried out by ISIS cells in areas under the Autonomous Administration’s control since the beginning of the year. These operations included armed attacks, targeted assassinations, and explosions. In another report, the Observatory warned of plans targeting the Sayyida Zaynab shrine or areas predominantly inhabited by the Alawite sect.

Experts suggest that al-Assad’s fall could encourage a handful of ISIS fighters to strengthen their presence in parts of East and West Africa. This was highlighted by propaganda videos released in late December and early January.

Adel Abdelkafi, a strategic advisor to the former army commander-in-chief in Tripoli, shares these concerns. He told Independent Arabia that ISIS has been regrouping since 2023, with fighters infiltrating areas stretching from Syria and Iraq to the Sahel and the Sahara.

Abdelkafi summarized the group’s strategy as “remaining and expanding.” When pursued in specific areas, the group’s leaders and fighters vanish until military pursuits subside, allowing them to regroup. This strategy is aided by the security tensions in the African Sahel, the Lake Chad basin, and the porous borders between these countries, along with geographical terrain that favors terrorist groups.

The American Institute for the Study of War noted in a January 9 report that ISIS‘s long-term game and resurgence in Syria pose an evolving threat to the West. It emphasized that recent developments in Syria and Africa risk creating security vacuums that ISIS could exploit to bolster its power.

The institute also highlighted, as reported by Independent Arabia, the possibility that these developments could undermine Western efforts to combat the group and Syria’s political transition. This includes scenarios of mass prison breaks in eastern Syria or sectarian attacks in the country’s west. ISIS fighters are currently detained in facilities managed by the SDF in northeastern Syria.

It is worth noting that the first authorities to declare a security alert in Africa to track potential extremists were those in eastern Libya, in the days following al-Assad’s fall. This alert stemmed from the opening of Syrian prisons and the release of detainees without identity verification, raising fears of these extremist militants infiltrating Libya. Additionally, Syrian fighters recruited by Turkey remain stationed in western Libya, where they celebrated the fall of al-Assad’s regime, as shown in videos published by Libyan media.