Errors or an exhausted system? The puzzle behind the rise in U.S. military aircraft accidents
In an airspace considered among the world’s most “disciplined,” questions are multiplying as the number of U.S. military aircraft accidents surges sharply.
Between 2020 and 2024, these incidents increased by 55 %, a figure that suggests the problem goes far beyond bad luck or isolated errors.
As the Pentagon releases reports and lawmakers sound the alarm, the U.S. military appears to be entering a difficult period of introspection — reassessing its safety doctrine, training hours, maintenance philosophy, and even the way its aircraft are built.
What are the causes?
Responsible Statecraft reported a 55 % rise in U.S. military aircraft accidents between 2020 and 2024, citing new Pentagon data. After reviewing the figures, Senator Elizabeth Warren of the Armed Services Committee described the trend as “deeply alarming and requiring urgent action.”
She noted that Class A accidents — those destroying an aircraft or causing more than 2.5 million dollars in damages, or resulting in death or permanent disability — have led to 90 deaths, the loss of 89 aircraft, and 9.4 billion dollars in damages. She stressed that greater transparency from the Pentagon is now necessary to save service members’ lives.
The Bunker, which has documented military aviation incidents for nearly 50 years, attributes these accidents to factors such as: widespread negligence within the military–industrial complex, reckless piloting, overloading pilots with multiple tasks, insufficient training, and occasionally unknown causes.
Although military aircraft are equipped with multiple layers of safety and backup systems, accidents often result from a “perfect storm” of converging errors. Possible causes are therefore almost limitless.
There is, however, a clear link between accident rates and the level of training, flight hours, and spare-part availability. Accidents rise when these three elements decline. For instance, monthly flight hours for U.S. Air Force fighter pilots dropped from around 16 in the 1990s to 10 in the mid-2010s, and currently average about five. Less experienced pilots face higher accident risks.
The Pentagon frequently attributes incidents to pilot error — especially when pilots are not alive to defend themselves — before resorting to the usual remedy: more funding for training, flight time, and spare parts.
But military aviation is far too complex for funding alone to solve everything. As World War II pilot Ernest Gann once said: “The emergencies you train for rarely happen… the ones you can’t simulate are the ones that kill you.”
Are there other factors?
According to Responsible Statecraft, defense contractors are resisting a proposed amendment in next year’s defense bill that would require them to share maintenance data with the Pentagon, allowing government technicians to repair equipment rather than relying on private companies.
Contractors argue that such a measure would endanger national security. Eric Fanning, president of the Aerospace Industries Association and former Secretary of the Army, stated: “America’s military edge relies on advanced technology and a strong industrial base… innovators must be protected, not exposed.”
Technical drawings, intellectual property rights, and maintenance files are considered strategic assets for defense contractors. For example, while the Pentagon intends to spend 485 billion dollars to acquire 2,470 F-35 fighter jets from Lockheed Martin, it is expected to spend an additional 1.58 trillion dollars to keep them operational — meaning acquisition costs represent less than a quarter of total ownership.
Virginia Barger, a legal expert with the Project on Government Oversight, explained that “data-for-service” models often require constant internet connectivity — which may not be available in wartime settings. She added that technicians might end up carrying binders filled with printed screenshots to perform repairs.
The Pentagon and the White House support giving the Department of Defense greater access to contractors’ intellectual property. A final decision is expected next month, in a development that could prove beneficial — or problematic — for U.S. military readiness.
