A Lone Path to Confront Russia? Europe Fears a “Trojan Horse”

---

European diplomats fear that pro-Russian governments may hinder efforts to regain the initiative from the United States and save Ukraine.

As the 27 EU leaders gather in Brussels on Thursday, they are well aware that the post-1945 security framework, reliant on U.S. support, could collapse at any moment.

Since Donald Trump’s return to the White House, leaders have spoken frequently about sovereignty and defense.

• After the Freeze… A Review of U.S. Aid to Ukraine Since 2022

• Why Is It Time to Reconsider the Creation of a European Army?

European government officials told Politico that they acknowledge the need to turn words into action. However, some are already concerned that things could go terribly wrong.

French President Emmanuel Macron has even spoken of the need for a “spectacular awakening,” but insiders worry that events are unfolding faster than leaders can handle.

According to Malcolm Chalmers, Deputy Director of the Royal United Services Institute in London, “The nightmare scenario is that the United States soon announces an agreement accepting most of Russia’s demands, then tells Ukraine and Europe to either take it or leave it.”

In this context, Europeans are not only wary of the U.S. position but also of some of their own member states.

• U.S. Support Halted: Dangerous Scenarios for Ukraine in Its Fight against Russia

• Ukraine Faces an Uncertain Future after a Clash Between Zelensky and Trump

Fears of a “Trojan Horse”

While Thursday’s hastily arranged summit—following less formal meetings in Paris and London—demonstrates a willingness to find solutions, diplomats are already bracing for a group of pro-Russian leaders, led by Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, who could derail the discussions.

According to Politico, the sheer number of topics on the agenda and the lack of unity mean this summit has the potential to take multiple directions. Leaders are considering how to rapidly redirect resources to strengthen national armies while also reaffirming support for Ukraine, such as by reiterating its path toward EU membership.

• On the Anniversary of the War in Ukraine… Russia Fails to Understand Trump’s Plan and Sets Its Negotiation Objective

• Trump, Zelensky, and the Metals Deal: Stakes Far Greater Than the Agreement Itself

They will also attempt to demonstrate opposition to Vladimir Putin’s regime, possibly by committing to another round of sanctions against Russia, making the negotiations particularly challenging.

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen sent a message to EU leaders on Tuesday, stating, “Europe is facing a threat on a scale that none of us have experienced in our lifetime,” adding that “the future of a free and sovereign Ukraine, and the future of a secure and prosperous Europe, is at stake.”

• Third Anniversary of the War: Ukraine Caught Between Frontline Anxiety and Political Concerns

• The Collapse of the “War Alliance”: Ukraine Pushes Poland into a Historical and Political Rift

One of the first issues on the agenda is a plan unveiled yesterday by von der Leyen to unlock up to €800 billion in additional defense spending over the coming years.

More specifically, the plan includes a proposal for the EU to borrow €150 billion, which would then be lent to EU governments to finance European-made equipment, including air and missile defense systems, artillery, rockets, drones, and other strategic needs.

EU diplomats and officials are still reviewing the details of these proposals, but they have been generally described as a step in the right direction.

• Ukraine without America: Zelensky Talks About “Slim Chances” of Survival

• Russia Accuses the U.S. and the U.K. of Recruiting Agents to Target Its Bases in Syria

Hungary’s Opposition

However, a battle is already brewing over sending additional military support to Ukraine.

Officials had expected the summit’s final declaration to include a plan announced last month by EU foreign affairs chief Kaja Kallas to supply Ukraine with at least 1.5 million artillery shells this year, along with other equipment such as air defense systems, missiles, and drones.

While the final communiqué will not be released until the summit concludes, the latest draft seen by Politico urges ministers to find a way to ensure weapons shipments proceed.

• Discover the 10 Most Powerful Armies in Europe: The United Kingdom in First Place

• Ukraine’s Bell Rings across Europe: Cooperation to Build a Defense Industrial Base

Officials have said that Hungary is refusing to approve the plan, highlighting the potential for so-called “pro-Moscow” countries to disrupt Europe’s defense strategy and support for Kyiv.

As European leaders gather tomorrow, Ukrainian officials remain resolute in response to the U.S. aid suspension, Politico reports.

A senior Ukrainian official told Politico that the decision is “extremely painful but not fatal,” adding, “It will cost Ukraine unnecessary deaths and lost territories, but it will not lead to defeat.”

•  “Gripen”… Swedish Fighter Jet Faces its ‘Toughest Test’ in Ukraine

• Russia and Ukraine Exchange Records in the Drone Warfare

• Ukraine War: Russian Advance Shifts the Balance of Power and a Target Bank Ahead of Winter