Gaza Ceasefire on the Edge: Stalled Negotiations and an Uncertain Future
The fragile ceasefire between Hamas and Israel is now hanging by a thread, with accusations escalating between both sides and second-phase negotiations stumbling.
On Monday, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu once again warned Hamas of consequences, following Tel Aviv’s decision to block food and aid shipments into the besieged Gaza Strip.
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Relief groups and the United Nations strongly criticized the Israeli announcement halting aid. Egypt, the mediator of the ceasefire agreement, firmly rejected the politicization of humanitarian aid and its exploitation as a tool of blackmail.
Sixty-nine hostages remain in Gaza after four bodies were returned last week. Among the 69, it is believed that 24 are alive, according to Israeli authorities.
Meanwhile, a spokesperson for the U.S. State Department said that President Donald Trump‘s Middle East envoy, Steve Witkoff, plans to return to the Middle East “in the coming days” to find a way to extend the first phase (which ended 3 days ago) or to move on to the second phase of the Gaza ceasefire agreement and release the hostages.
Here’s what we know about the agreement and the obstacles it faces.
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What the Agreement Entails
The ceasefire agreement is supposed to be implemented in three phases.
On January 19, the first phase came into effect. It lasted 42 days and ended last weekend.
This first phase aimed to free 33 Israeli hostages in exchange for hundreds of Palestinian prisoners and to allow aid into Gaza.
In the end, Hamas released 38 hostages over 39 days, while Israel freed 1,737 Palestinian prisoners and detainees, including 120 women and children.
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Israeli forces also withdrew to the Gaza border areas, leaving all urban centers and a major corridor dividing the enclave in two.
The second phase was supposed to last 42 days, with the goal of definitively ending the war, a total withdrawal of Israeli forces from Gaza, and the release of all living hostages in exchange for Palestinian prisoners.
The agreement stipulates that the ceasefire can continue as long as negotiators continue dialogue.
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Both sides were supposed to begin negotiations to permanently end the war in early February. However, several weeks passed without it being clear whether these talks would start.
Last Friday, an Israeli delegation suddenly returned to Tel Aviv after having barely arrived a day earlier in Cairo.
A Hamas spokesman said in a press conference over the weekend that there are currently “no negotiations” taking place regarding the second phase, blaming Israel for the failure due to the talks not starting.
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What Israel Says
Israel now seeks to extend the first phase of the agreement by an additional 42 days to continue the hostage exchange, both living and deceased, in return for the continued release of Palestinian prisoners and the delivery of larger amounts of aid into Gaza, but without committing to permanently end the war.
Netanyahu stated that the proposed extension, which would last through Ramadan and Passover (ending mid-April), was an idea put forward by Witkoff.
No comment has been made by Witkoff or the Trump administration regarding the modified plan, nor on Israel’s confirmation that halting aid to Gaza was agreed with Washington.
Israel accuses Hamas of rejecting the proposal, and in response, has suspended all humanitarian aid to Gaza.
Netanyahu’s office stated on Sunday: “Given Hamas’ refusal to accept the framework (from U.S. envoy Steve) Witkoff to continue negotiations—accepted by Israel—the Prime Minister decided that from this morning, all goods and supplies would be barred from entering Gaza.”
The office warned that there would be “further consequences” if Hamas continued to reject the proposal.
The statement added that Israel would not allow a ceasefire without the release of the remaining hostages.
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What Hamas Says
Hamas seeks to negotiate a permanent ceasefire and the complete withdrawal of Israeli forces from Gaza as part of the second phase of the truce, accusing Israel of “continuously manipulating” the proposal for extending the first phase.
The movement criticized Israel’s decision and called on mediators to press for an end to its “punitive measures.”
It considers the proposed extension a “blatant attempt to evade the agreement and avoid starting negotiations for its second phase.”
It stated, “The only way to recover the hostages is to respect the agreement, immediately begin negotiations for the second phase, and engage the occupation to fulfill its commitments.”
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What Others Are Saying
Israel described the proposed extension as an effort led by the United States. It remains unclear which country proposed this initiative, but U.S. National Security Council spokesperson Brian Hughes expressed support for Israel.
However, many members of the international community, including the mediators of the agreement, the U.N., and humanitarian organizations, have criticized Israel’s halting of aid.
Egypt stated that it “firmly rejects the politicization of humanitarian aid and its use as a tool of blackmail.” It called on the international community to “take decisive action to force the Israeli government to allow humanitarian aid into Gaza without conditions.”
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Qatar also strongly rejected “the use of food as a weapon of war and the famine of civilians.”
Tom Fletcher, the U.N.’s emergency humanitarian coordinator (OCHA), expressed concern, saying: “Israel’s decision to stop aid to Gaza is troubling.”
He added: “International humanitarian law is clear: we must be able to access and provide vital aid.”
What Happens Next?
The fate of the dozens of Israeli hostages and the ceasefire in Gaza remains uncertain, with fears that the truce may collapse.
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Netanyahu remains under pressure from far-right ministers in his government to resume the war, a possibility that may meet less opposition under the new Trump administration, according to CNN.
In a press release, the Hostage Forum pleaded with Trump to finalize an agreement and bring all captives home.
In a development likely to be seen as provocative by Hamas, an Israeli source told CNN last week that Israel would not withdraw its troops from the Gaza-Egypt border (the Philadelphi Corridor), as required by the second phase of the potential ceasefire.
At the same time, Gaza’s more than two million inhabitants risk losing the minimal aid they have received during the truce.
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