Illusory Optimism or New Pressures: What Lies Behind American Claims About Ceasefire Negotiations in Gaza?
Some officials in the American administration have claimed that the ceasefire negotiations in Gaza and the release of hostages have reached their final stages, despite American and global concerns about a potential Iranian attack on Israel in response to the assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran, according to “Voice of America.”
Biden’s Message
According to the American network, American officials have repeated President Joe Biden’s message to the main mediators in Qatar and Egypt, stating that the talks “are now in the final stage” and must “be concluded as soon as possible.”
State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller told reporters: “We really believe we are in the final stage of agreeing on a framework.”
Analysts say that the administration’s optimism seems illusory as it contrasts with the increasing tensions in the region, where Iran has vowed to respond to the killing of Ismail Haniyeh last week, widely believed to have been carried out by Israel.
Aaron David Miller, a former U.S. negotiator in the Middle East and now a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, said: “We are on the brink of a major regional war.”
Israel also faces potential retaliation from Hezbollah in southern Lebanon following its air raid on the suburbs of Beirut last week, which killed Fouad Shukr, one of the leaders of the Iranian-backed group.
Miller added: “Hezbollah is on the verge of launching – perhaps in the early hours of this morning or tomorrow or the day after – a serious effort to inflict real harm on Israelis.”
U.S. officials have also reported that other Iran-backed militias have launched attacks on U.S. military sites in Iraq and Syria in recent weeks, ending months of relative calm.
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American Pressures
According to the American network, analysts believe that the statements from American administration officials about the negotiations reaching their final stages may aim to pressure Israel and its Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu after a series of assassinations that have shifted the equation.
They believe Netanyahu thinks the assassinations will pressure Hamas into agreeing to favorable terms for a ceasefire deal, even if it brings the region to the brink, as explained by Merav Zonszein, a senior analyst at the International Crisis Group in Israel.
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She added that Netanyahu‘s belief seems mistaken, as Biden has publicly and privately reprimanded Netanyahu, saying that Haniyeh‘s killing and the new Israeli demands at the negotiation table were not conducive to reaching a truce.
Last week, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken reiterated Biden’s message that all parties “must cease taking provocative actions and find reasons to reach an agreement, not seek reasons to delay or reject the agreement.”
Despite American pressure on Israel, Zonszein stated: “The entire defense establishment said it did not believe Netanyahu wanted the deal currently on the table.”
Blinken said that U.S. officials were engaged in intense diplomacy with allies and partners, in addition to speaking directly with Iran and Israel.
Laura Blumenfeld, a senior fellow at Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies, said: “The F-22A Raptors flying to the Middle East are high-tech peace doves carrying a one-word message to everyone: don’t do it.”
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Strengthening Its Position
According to the American network, for Hamas, by naming Yahya Sinwar as Haniyeh‘s successor, the armed group may be strengthening its position.
Deborah Margolin, a senior fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, said that appointing the mastermind behind the October 7 attack on Israel reinforces the group’s move towards strengthening ties with Iran at the expense of other benefactors.
This also indicates “an entrenchment towards its original goal: violent struggle against Israel by any means necessary.”
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White House National Security Advisor John Kirby downplayed concerns that Sinwar’s rise would further complicate ceasefire talks.
Illusory Optimism
The American network added that with American administration officials claiming the ceasefire negotiations are in their final stages, external observers find it difficult to judge whether this assessment is realistic or optimistic, according to Brian Katulis, a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute.
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Katulis said, referring to the ability of some figures to influence behavior through psychological manipulation, that trying to make the world believe that the agreement is within reach “could be a foreign policy mind game.”
It could also be a strategic message to motivate parties, especially Iran, to act with restraint.
