Iran Threatens Gulf States with Retaliation If They Support an Attack on It

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A senior Iranian official stated that Tehran has informed Gulf states that it would be “unacceptable” for them to allow the use of their airspace or military bases against the country, and any such action would trigger a response. There is also an expectation of a call between U.S. President Joe Biden and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu regarding steps to respond to Tehran.

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These statements come amid concerns over a potential Israeli retaliation to Iran’s missile attack launched last week and as Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi heads to Saudi Arabia and other Gulf countries for talks today.

They also follow discussions between Iran and the Gulf Arab states last week on the sidelines of an Asia conference in Qatar, where Gulf states sought to assert their neutrality in any conflict between Tehran and Israel.

The Iranian official said, “Iran has made it clear that any move by any of the Gulf states against Tehran, whether using airspace or military bases, will be regarded by Tehran as an act by the entire group, and Tehran will respond accordingly.”

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He added, “The message emphasized the need for regional unity in facing Israel, and the importance of achieving stability… It also clarified that any assistance to Israel, such as allowing the use of airspace by any country in the region for actions against Iran, is unacceptable.”

An informed source noted that U.S. President Joe Biden is expected to have a phone call with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu that will include discussions on any plans to strike Iran.

The Iranian official stated that Tehran did not discuss with Gulf oil-producing countries the issue of increasing production if Iranian output were disrupted during any escalation.

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Last week, Axios reported, citing Israeli officials, that Israel might target oil production facilities inside Iran in its response.

Biden stated that if he were in Israel’s position, he would consider other alternatives than striking Iranian oil fields. Such an attack could drive crude oil prices higher in global markets.

OPEC countries, led by Saudi Arabia, have enough additional production capacity to offset any shortfall in supplies from Iran if an Israeli response causes disruptions at some facilities.

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Most of this excess production capacity is in Gulf Arab countries. Iran has not threatened to attack oil facilities in the Gulf but has previously warned of the consequences of direct intervention by “Israel’s supporters,” saying it would put their interests in the region at risk.

Relations between Tehran and Riyadh have seen some political rapprochement in recent years, easing tensions in the region, but ties between the two countries remain difficult.

Saudi Arabia is preparing for the possibility of an Iranian strike on its oil facilities since the 2019 attack on a major refinery in Abqaiq, which temporarily disrupted over five percent of oil supplies. Iran has denied any involvement in that attack.

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A Western diplomat in the Gulf said Iran made it clear during its meeting with Gulf states in Doha on Thursday, on the sidelines of the conference, that it was calling for regional unity in the face of any Israeli attack, considering that the neutrality of Gulf states was the minimum to do.

The diplomat clarified that it was indicated Iran would closely monitor how each Gulf state would react in the event of an Israeli attack, as well as the use of U.S. bases present in these countries.

Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain, the Emirates, and Saudi Arabia host U.S. facilities or personnel.

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An informed source indicated that President Biden is expected to call Netanyahu on Wednesday, including discussions on any plan to strike Iran.

Netanyahu has promised that Iran, the sworn enemy, will pay the price for the missile attack, while Tehran stated that any response would be “accompanied by massive destruction,” exacerbating fears of a larger-scale war in the oil-producing region that could involve the United States.

Another informed source noted that Israel’s response would be a key topic of the phone call, as Washington hopes to have a discussion aimed at ensuring that Israel’s response is appropriate.

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On the other hand, a Pentagon spokesperson said Tuesday that Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant’s visit to America, which would have presented an opportunity for allies to formulate a joint strategy to address Iran, has been postponed.

An Israeli official attributed the decision to last-minute objections regarding Netanyahu‘s visit, according to Bloomberg on Wednesday.

The Pentagon announced that Gallant, who has diverged from Netanyahu on managing the ongoing war for over a year, in Gaza and other fronts, was supposed to travel to Washington for talks on Wednesday about “current security developments in the Middle East.”

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The Israeli official added that just hours before Gallant’s departure for the U.S., Netanyahu decided that the Israeli Defense Minister would not meet his American counterpart, Lloyd Austin, unless the security cabinet first convened to agree on a plan concerning Iran. Netanyahu also wished to speak with President Biden first.