ISIS is working to link its hotspots in Africa — the threat goes beyond the continent
Violence by armed groups affiliated with the Islamic State (ISIS) is escalating across Africa, expanding their influence in ways that pose a threat far beyond the continent’s borders.
Last week, extremist group operations dominated headlines, with ISIS-linked forces claiming responsibility for a deadly attack on a church in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo and the killing of soldiers in Burkina Faso — part of a growing trend of violence connected to the group.
Analysts say ISIS exploits ongoing conflicts and entrenched insecurity to create a complex threat that makes combating the organization in Africa extremely challenging, according to the American magazine Newsweek.
The magazine cited a security expert who said, “What we’re talking about is a long-term investment over many years that the United States simply cannot provide in reality and that local governments must supply… That is the real challenge.”
The expert, who wished to remain anonymous, added, “What complicates matters is dealing with local issues ultimately to address this larger problem,” and continued, “If not addressed, the risk is that it escalates to a much larger scale, representing a far greater threat on the global stage — a direct threat to the United States, Europe, or beyond Africa in general.”
ISIS currently encompasses a number of partner groups across the continent. J. Peter Pham, former U.S. special envoy for the Great Lakes and Sahel regions, told Newsweek, “Unfortunately, Africa has been, for several years, the frontline for violence perpetrated by extremist groups, including those affiliated with ISIS.”
He added, “For three years, the vast majority of terrorism-related deaths worldwide have occurred in Africa,” noting that “while the threat level posed by various ISIS affiliates varies, all — from the Sahel to Somalia, eastern Congo to Mozambique — are becoming increasingly deadly.”
Pham continued, “They are also increasingly demonstrating their ability to control vast swaths of land or at least deny governments the ability to operate in multiple areas.”
So far, ISIS branches across Africa have largely operated in geographical isolation from one another, limiting their effective cooperation — but this may change.
The expert described the situation in the Sahel region as “a powder keg,” with potential for further expansion of local ISIS branches in Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger.
Wassim Nasr, a senior fellow at the Soufan Center, expressed concern about a possible link between ISIS fronts in the Sahel and West Africa, where the group has stepped up attacks in Nigeria.
He said a “crossroads” is already being formed between two self-declared ISIS provinces, increasing the threat posed by the geographically isolated ISIS footholds on the continent. “This situation is not comparable to what happened in the Levant, but the group’s ambition to link territories — as it is doing between Nigeria and the Sahel — and the impact on their capabilities should not be underestimated,” he added.
The situation in the Sahel is particularly worrying, especially as military governments in Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger have expelled U.S. and French forces in recent years, focusing now on Russia-backed operations against Tuareg rebels.
ISIS’s main competitor in the region is now the Al-Qaeda affiliated group Jama’at Nasr al-Islam wal Muslimin, which is blocking ISIS from advancing southward amid ineffective local armies, according to Nasr.
He identified several factors allowing ISIS to thrive in African states, including “failed states, corruption, unstable borders, and human rights abuses by security forces and local armed groups.”
He argued this combination risks creating conditions for new attacks once extremists find sufficient foothold to carry out armed plans abroad, as they did from Libya starting in 2017.
Zakaria Beeri, associate professor at the University of South Florida, highlighted Africa’s — and particularly the Sahel’s — centrality in ISIS activity.
He said, “The Sahel region, where Mali and Burkina Faso intersect, has become a global terrorism hotspot split between Al-Qaeda and ISIS-affiliated groups, both of which still pose a serious threat.”
He added, “Al-Qaeda branches tend to be more pragmatic, while ISIS branches are more ideological… Both have proven their ability to kill and gain ground.”
Meanwhile, several U.S. officials have recognized the threat ISIS and other armed groups pose in Africa.
During testimony before the Senate in April, General Michael Langley, commander of U.S. Africa Command (AFRICOM), said, “If left unchecked, they will pose a direct threat to the homeland.”
Still, the issue appears to receive relatively less political attention, even with the Trump administration’s diplomatic engagement in countries affected by ISIS, mediating a peace agreement between the Democratic Republic of Congo and neighboring Rwanda.
Pham called the agreement “an important first step in a process we hope will not only bring peace and security to the two countries, but also allow focus on the real threat facing them and their peoples.”
He concluded, “As Americans, we have our own strategic interests… It’s not just counterterrorism, but also access to critical minerals that can only be safely extracted and processed in partnership with African countries when security prevails.”
Confidence McHary, a security analyst at S&P Morgan Intelligence in Lagos, noted a marked shift in U.S. foreign policy from counterterrorism to resource competition, allowing armed groups to exploit the situation by spreading into areas beyond the reach of major U.S. airstrikes.
She added, “This competition for resources will expose Washington’s weakness, especially if American economic interests are attacked by ISIS, not just in Congo but elsewhere as well.”
