Israel and Hezbollah: Is Confrontation Inevitable?
Considerations that prevent Israel and Hezbollah from initiating a war, but there is one reason that could make this confrontation inevitable.
In practice, each of the incidents that have occurred since last October 8th would, under normal circumstances, have triggered a war.
However, Israel’s preoccupation with the war in Gaza and Hezbollah‘s desire, for internal Lebanese reasons, not to appear as the initiator of the war, have so far prevented the confrontation.
But the developments of the past two weeks and the unprecedented escalation on both sides of the Israeli-Lebanese border make the war closer than ever.
And because Washington wishes to end the war in Gaza before the U.S. presidential election reaches its peak, it has sought to prevent an escalation that could become regional.
One Reason
However, there is one reason that would make the war inevitable despite the wishes of Israel, Hezbollah, and Washington to avoid opening a new front while they are already busy stopping the war in Gaza.
The main military analyst for the newspaper “Haaretz,” Amos Harel, said that “the main danger with Lebanon now lies in the scenario of miscalculation – the mass killing of soldiers or civilians by one side or the other, or the fear of a surprise attack from the other side, which could prompt a preemptive operation.”
This seems to be what concerns Hassan Nasrallah, the Secretary-General of Hezbollah. Ibrahim Al-Amin, the editor-in-chief of the Lebanese newspaper “Al-Akhbar” and a journalist very close to Nasrallah, wrote that in the case of war, Hezbollah would feel no constraints in its attacks on Israel and that the party promises many surprises for Israel.
On his part, the political analyst for Israeli Channel 13, Raviv Drucker, revealed that “during the first eight months of the war, Israeli decision-makers had no real intention of getting involved in a ground war in Lebanon.”
He added: “They issued boastful threats, like saying that Hassan Nasrallah ‘would make the mistake of his life,’ but it was clear to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Defense Minister Yoav Galant, and military leaders that such a conflict made no sense.”
He explained this by saying that the conflict “would achieve nothing that could not be achieved through diplomatic means, and the cost would be intolerably high.”
However, Drucker added: “But in recent weeks, the situation has changed somewhat. Our humiliation by Hezbollah has become too much. Life in the north is disrupted, drones have penetrated our airspace, Israel’s weakness has been exposed, and Netanyahu is struggling to absorb it all.”
Drucker continued: “Thus, suddenly, the cheap war was born, and we will not bring Lebanon back to the Stone Age, we will not invade southern Lebanon up to the Litani River. Instead, we are talking about a limited ground maneuver that will penetrate only a few kilometers inside the country.”
He added: “Its main goal will be to inform the residents of the north that the threat of a ground attack across the border like the one that occurred in the south on October 7th has disappeared, so they should return home.”
Drucker emphasized that several reasons “have made a ground maneuver in the north possible. But this will be a bad decision. The situation is difficult and humiliating, but the ground operation could make things worse.”
A Worrisome Signal
At the peak of the visit of Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Galant to Washington, an American statement ignited the red light in Israel.
General Charles Brown, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff of the United States, presented on Monday disappointing forecasts regarding the risk of war between Israel and Hezbollah.
A few days after anonymous sources in the Biden administration promised to provide all the military assistance the Israeli defense forces need in case of a full-scale war, Brown clarified that this would not be simple.
He told the media that the Israeli operation against Hezbollah could likely lead to Iranian involvement to defend the party if it felt genuinely threatened.
Brown added that in such a case, the United States would not be able to provide complete defense to Israel, and this would also be the case if Hezbollah launched massive short-range missiles.
Brown’s statements recalled Washington’s remarkable participation and that of several regional and international countries in thwarting the Iranian attack with missiles and drones on April 14th.
Harel said: “But this is very different from a joint attack by Iran and Hezbollah where the Iranians might try to launch more projectiles, not to mention Hezbollah‘s arsenal, which includes more than 100,000 missiles and shells.”
He added: “This would require much greater preparation, and it is not certain that Washington would have enough early warning, whether the war is triggered by an Israeli attack or by an attack from the Lebanese side. If the war starts unexpectedly, things will take time, even if the administration has the best intentions in the world.”
Harel continued: “Brown’s statements, like the actions of Biden and the Pentagon, are related to Washington’s concerns about an uncontrollable war between Israel and Hezbollah. They do not want to put Israel in a position that might prompt it to fire first. If necessary, the Americans will mobilize our defense, but they will not guarantee a quick or perfect outcome.”
A Total War
In this context, retired Israeli army general Israel Ziv said in a statement broadcast by Israeli Channel 12: “It is almost certain that the war in the north will deteriorate into a total regional war with the direct participation of Iran and all allied organizations.”
He estimated that “Iran has long since crossed the deterrence line, and the only consideration that could prevent it from escalating the region is solely the United States – Biden might be very aggressive towards them in the last part of the electoral race.”
Ziv added: “Defense Minister Galant went to the United States to try to rectify Netanyahu‘s irresponsibility and prepare for American support. However, the Defense Minister will have to provide difficult answers on where Israel is heading.”
He continued: “It will be difficult for him to explain, and since he is responsible for the war achievements and must return with weapons and ammunition, he will have to reach a clear agreement with the Americans on an agreed plan to end the war in the most successful way possible.”
Israeli Considerations
In Israel, it has recently been repeated by several officials, including Netanyahu, that the ground operation in Rafah, in the southern Gaza Strip, is about to end, and that the Israeli army will move to the next phase of the war, which does not require the presence of a large number of soldiers in Gaza.
The Israeli army has expressed its readiness to move to war in Lebanon, provided that the Israeli political level defines the objectives of the war.
As a result, Israel needs a sufficient number of forces for the war in Lebanon, enough equipment and ammunition from Washington, and the definition of war objectives.
In return, Washington tells Israel that the ceasefire in Gaza could likely lead to the cessation of Hezbollah‘s fire, so Israel must wait before making any decision.
The Diplomatic Solution?
Notably, the tension has returned to its levels before the recent escalation, and with it, Israeli statements talking about a political solution.
The Israeli Ministry of Defense said in a statement that during the meeting of Defense Minister Yoav Galant with U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken in Washington, “Galant discussed possible ways to change the security situation in the north.”
Galant emphasized “the importance of Washington standing by Israel in this mission and its influence on the actions of Hezbollah and Iran.”
During his meeting with his American counterpart Lloyd Austin, the Israeli Defense Minister said: “In Gaza, we must ensure the return of the 120 hostages… and end the terrorist regime of Hamas. In the north, we are determined to ensure the safety and secure return of the residents of our civilian centers.”
He stressed that Iran represents “the greatest danger to the future of the world,” calling on Washington to prevent Tehran from acquiring nuclear weapons.
Galant warned that “time is running out” in this regard, adding: “Today we are at a crossroads that will affect the entire Middle East.”
On his part, Israeli National Security Advisor Tzachi Hanegbi referred to attempts to reach a diplomatic solution in the north with Hezbollah.
Hanegbi said that Israel and the United States “believe” in the efforts led by the United States to avoid a broader conflict.
He warned that “if there is no arrangement through diplomatic means, everyone knows there will be an arrangement through other means.”
But Hanegbi, who is close to Netanyahu, added: “For now, we are focusing on the diplomatic domain,” considering it the best means to restore calm in the north.
