Khamenei, Iran’s Illness and the Obstacle to Any Agreement with Washington

The Supreme Leader’s speech on the occasion of the Iranian New Year demonstrated his unwavering commitment to a hardline stance, in stark contrast to a diplomatic effort seeking loopholes to break the crisis deadlock and advance negotiations with Western powers.

Iran follows two contradictory paths: one is a diplomatic track led by government members, including Foreign Minister Abbas Araghtchi, who aims to find openings or breakthroughs that could lead to sanctions relief and an economic recovery, preventing social unrest. The other path is embodied by Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, who regularly makes hardline statements, countering efforts to resolve the crisis and break the deadlock in negotiations with Western powers, especially the United States.

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Amid these contradictions, Khamenei appears as one of Iran’s greatest obstacles, blocking any nuclear deal that could save Tehran from one of the worst crises in its history—an ordeal that has worsened since the rise of Republican President Donald Trump.

While Trump has shown some flexibility in reaching a new agreement to end nuclear threats and Iran’s destabilizing regional activities, he has not abandoned his “maximum pressure” policy. This is largely due to Khamenei’s rigid stance, which undermines diplomatic efforts and escalates tensions, with the Iranian people paying the price.

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In a report published Monday, Le Monde highlighted that the Supreme Leader’s speech for the Iranian New Year (Nowruz) reaffirmed his hardline stance, opposing any negotiations with the United States despite the dire situation facing his country.

This speech from Iran’s highest political and religious authority contradicts diplomatic efforts led by Abbas Araghtchi, who expressed Iran’s willingness to negotiate, while simultaneously asserting its readiness for war—a rhetoric commonly used by Iranian officials to avoid showing weakness to their adversaries.

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Iran, which has long mastered the art of maneuvering around Western pressure, now faces a difficult reality after the weakening of Hezbollah, the fall of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, and Hamas’s decline in Gaza.

With a shrinking margin for negotiation, Tehran is attempting to regain regional influence by supporting the Houthis in Yemen and fueling chaos in Syria.

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Iran also relies on Iraq, where it maintains significant influence through Shiite militias. However, even Baghdad is growing wary, fearing US sanctions or Israeli strikes.

For now, no real change is expected as long as Khamenei remains in power, and until a more pragmatic and balanced leader succeeds him.

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