Libya in 2025: Will the dream of presidential and parliamentary elections come true?

30th December 2024

4 minutes read

Libya in 2025: Will the dream of presidential and parliamentary elections come true?

As 2025 approaches, experts predict that Libya will witness significant political developments, notably the possibility of holding presidential and parliamentary elections.

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This follows the success of municipal elections held on November 16, 2024, in 58 municipalities, with a participation rate exceeding 70%, aiming to achieve political stability and unify institutions in 2025.

Despite the optimism of experts and analysts about the likelihood of holding elections in 2025, they consider that achieving this goal depends on several factors, most notably the unification of Libyan institutions, agreement on electoral laws, and international support.

Elections “inevitable”

In this context, Dr. Youssef Al-Farsi, Professor of Political Science at the University of Derna and President of the “Libya Al-Karama” Party, stated that “after the success of municipal elections, it has become inevitable to pave the way for presidential and parliamentary elections, provided that the right environment for their success is ensured.”

Al-Farsi added, “There is hope that 2025 will witness the elections that have been postponed multiple times, especially since political stability and institutional unification will be achieved if the elections take place.”

He further noted that “the successive meetings of UN Special Representative to Libya Stephanie Williams with House of Representatives Speaker Aguila Saleh, and discussions about unifying institutions and forming a new government, push towards having a single government to manage and oversee the organization of elections, particularly following the momentum gained from the municipal elections.”

He pointed out that “this December will see the London Conference, bringing together Britain, the United States, France, Germany, Italy, Turkey, Egypt, the UAE, and Qatar to reach a unified vision for Libya’s future and push for presidential and parliamentary elections.”

Dr. Al-Farsi believes that 2025 will be full of surprises concerning Libya’s political stability.

2025: A Year Full of Surprises

Libyan political analyst Mohamed Amtairid agrees, stating that 2025 “will bring surprises, especially with the (3+2+2) meeting scheduled in London, aimed at establishing a mechanism to end political division and move towards elections.”

Amtairid said, “2025 will fulfill the aspirations of the Libyan people to proceed to elections.”

He pointed out that “some parties are pushing for parliamentary elections first. Therefore, no summit aiming at elections can be held without international support and momentum to establish a unified government, which is the essential starting point.”

He added, “The success of municipal elections between the authorities in the east and west showed that moving forward with future elections, whether parliamentary, presidential, or municipal, will be met with determination, enthusiasm, and readiness by the Libyan people.”

Amtairid concluded that “the people embarrassed the authorities, especially in western Libya, after the announcement of coercive forces, which have now disappeared following the success of municipal elections.”

Towards Achieving the Dream

Libyan political analyst and researcher Ayoub Al-Ougli stated that 2025 opens its arms to fulfilling the Libyan people’s dream of holding presidential and parliamentary elections in the country.

Al-Ougli noted “municipal elections will become a pressure tool to push towards presidential and parliamentary elections, provided there is agreement among political parties on electoral laws, which remain a source of concern for Libyans and politicians alike.”

He highlighted the “difficulty of proceeding with elections while two governments exist,” stressing the need to “eliminate this division.”

He also emphasized the “difficulty of advancing successful presidential and parliamentary elections without unifying the government or appointing a new one,” believing that “if this does not happen, all attempts will fail.”

He added: “Furthermore, the division within the State Council between Khaled Al-Mashri and Mohamed Takala will obstruct any consensus on electoral laws, as the council, which is supposed to approve laws alongside the House of Representatives, is itself divided.”

The Libyan researcher explained that “talking about presidential and parliamentary elections at the beginning of the year is currently unrealistic, although there is some hope for a rapprochement and understanding regarding the elections, but under conditions, namely unifying the government and resolving the State Council crisis.”

A Conditional Dream

For his part, Libyan political analyst Ahmed Abu Arqoub opined that due to the political stalemate, the division of forces within the Security Council, and the absence of a plan to change the political landscape, the situation will remain complex.

Abu Arqoub asserted that “the lack of national will among Libyan parties, coupled with an international community preoccupied with other issues, makes it difficult to move towards elections without significant international pressure.”

He called for “efforts to change the political situation by unifying executive institutions and drafting a clear roadmap leading to elections.”

He also stressed the “need to address critical issues, including security, dismantling armed groups outside state control, and eliminating any foreign presence in the country.”