Netanyahu’s New Gaza Strategy: Seven Reasons It Risks Failure

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Israel is preparing to launch a major offensive in mid-September targeting Gaza City and the central camps, in what it describes as a decisive attempt to dismantle Hamas and recover hostages.

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Israeli media reports suggest that over 60,000 reservists will be mobilized for this operation, labeled a “critical phase” of the war. The plan also includes a mass evacuation order for one million Palestinians, paving the way for a large-scale ground assault on the enclave’s core.

However, The Times of London argues that this strategy is essentially a repetition of earlier attempts that failed, due to enduring obstacles present since the outbreak of war in October 2023.

The newspaper identified seven key reasons why Netanyahu’s promise of “total victory” remains elusive.

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The Hostage Dilemma: A Military Constraint

An estimated 50 Israeli hostages remain in Hamas custody—around 30 presumed dead and 20 alive. This reality severely restricts military options: storming densely populated areas risks killing those Israel seeks to rescue. The Nuseirat operation in June underscored this dilemma—four hostages were freed, but more than 270 Palestinians were killed, according to Gaza’s health ministry.

No Vision for the Day After

Despite pledges to “eliminate Hamas,” Israel’s government has no plan for postwar governance in Gaza. It rejects both the Palestinian Authority and international frameworks as alternatives. Such a political vacuum all but guarantees the re-emergence of Hamas or the rise of other resistance groups.

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Urban Warfare: An Unwinnable Battle

Gaza’s dense neighborhoods, tunnels, and interlinked streets provide ideal conditions for guerrilla warfare. Past campaigns show that Israeli control is temporary: militants withdraw under assault, only to reappear once troops leave. This war of attrition makes sustainable occupation impossible.

Civilian Pressure and International Legitimacy

The September plan involves displacing up to one million Palestinians. Images of mass displacement and destruction would fuel global outrage, especially amid mounting criticism of the war from Europe and the United States. Securing international legitimacy for such an operation seems nearly impossible.

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Internal Division and Political Strain

In Israel, weekly protests are growing, demanding a deal for the hostages’ release. Many families fear that a military escalation would further endanger their loved ones. This divide, compounded by Netanyahu’s political and legal troubles, undermines coherent decision-making at the highest levels.

A Stalled Negotiation Process

Hamas recently offered to release ten live hostages and the remains of eighteen others in exchange for a 60-day truce. Netanyahu rejected the proposal, insisting on an all-inclusive deal. This paradox—seeking to rescue hostages militarily while rejecting partial agreements that could save lives—illustrates Israel’s strategic deadlock.

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The Failure of Past Strategies

Since October 2023, Israel has carried out multiple operations under different names, yet none succeeded in securing Gaza or dismantling Hamas. Increasing troop numbers or intensifying bombardments has not resolved the central dilemma: how to defeat an organization deeply embedded among civilians without triggering humanitarian disaster or endangering hostages.

According to The Times, this new plan appears less like a decisive strategy and more like a political maneuver to buy time. Without a credible political framework, with negotiations stalled and public pressure mounting, Netanyahu’s vision of “total victory” risks remaining a distant illusion.

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