On the anniversary of Bin Laden’s death, is the end near for Al-Qaeda?
Thirteen years ago, the world felt a sense of calm and tranquility following the death of the world’s foremost terrorist, Osama bin Laden, who was a direct symbol of terrorism and the leader of the terrorist organization Al-Qaeda, which carried out some of the largest terrorist operations globally. However, with his death, everything collapsed, despite the presence of many other leaders of the terrorist group thereafter.
After the terrorist Bin Laden’s death, al-Zawahiri took over the organization, but at the same time, his proximity to Bin Laden did not favor him, as he was considered the weakest link, the man who began the dismantling of the organization, paving the way for the emergence of ISIS to pull the rug out from under Al-Qaeda.
What comes after Bin Laden’s death?
After Osama bin Laden’s death in 2011, Al-Qaeda witnessed a decline in its influence and activity, starting with the loss of its main leader. The death of Osama bin Laden was a severe blow to the organization, as he was considered the spiritual leader and the mastermind behind the September 11, 2001 attacks, as well as the person capable of maintaining decision-making centrality and management.
Bin Laden was also the strongman who attracted most of the youth to join the terrorist organization at a time when religious sympathy was being exploited. After Bin Laden’s death, Ayman al-Zawahiri emerged as the leader of Al-Qaeda, but he did not have the same influence as the organization’s founder, nor the ability to achieve the same impact. Security pressures on Al-Qaeda increased after Bin Laden’s death, with many of its leaders and members being tracked down, their hideouts and bases destroyed.
Retreat in favor of ISIS
The organization’s retreat in favor of other groups, after Bin Laden’s death, allowed for the emergence of competing terrorist organizations, such as the more brutal and heinous ISIS. With the central leadership of Al-Qaeda weakened after Bin Laden’s death, the organization gradually shifted towards decentralization, eventually reaching a stage of total weakness at the center and intermittent activity of its branches, especially the Somali Al-Shabaab movement.
Bin Laden’s death not only weakened Al-Qaeda and created a void in the terrorist organizations landscape but also marked the beginning of a successful strategy used by the United States for 13 years to target the leaders of these organizations, in what is known as “decapitation.”
Unlike Osama Bin Laden, the first step in implementing this strategy was successful. The United States succeeded in killing Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, the leader of ISIS, in October 2019, in an aerial strike in the Syrian province of Idlib, carried out by the US military under the supervision of the CIA, in what is known as “Operation Kayla Mueller.”
Abu Ibrahim al-Hashimi al-Qurashi, the second commander of Al-Qaeda, was killed in an operation carried out by the US military, also supervised by the CIA, in his hideout in Idlib, Syria in February 2022.
Similarly, Ayman al-Zawahiri was killed on July 31, 2022, in Kabul, the capital of Afghanistan, in an airstrike with a drone, under the supervision and execution of the CIA.
Terrorism expert Mustafa Hamza stated that Bin Laden’s death had weakened Al-Qaeda, just as al-Baghdadi’s death weakened ISIS. Bin Laden was an iconic figure of terrorist organizations and the head of the snake, and his death was a major blow to terrorists worldwide, most of whom spread rumors that his death was not real and that the US was lying about it. The goal was to maintain the organization.
Hamza added that the organization had clearly suffered the consequences of Bin Laden’s death. Subsequently, Ayman al-Zawahiri arrived, a man who did not possess the same charisma as Bin Laden. Since then, the organization has been in constant conflict over its identity, followed by defections in favor of other organizations, notably ISIS and Boko Haram.
For his part, international terrorism expert Munir Adib said that Al-Qaeda had lost its influence with the rise of the Taliban in Afghanistan, threatening its presence in the country. Currently, the organization is only present in Yemen, with weak participation that does not reflect its presence. This was the legacy of Bin Laden, who became the strongest man, with none of his successors able to execute the agenda clearly.
Adib added that the terrorist organization will not be heard from for years. Similarly, Bin Laden’s name was stronger than Al-Qaeda‘s because Osama Bin Laden was a confrontational man, with a powerful media machine supporting him, indicating that he was the strongest man feared by the world. Therefore, anyone who came after him would be weakened, which we have seen clearly.
