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Russia’s ambitions are not merely about geographic expansion. They reflect a broader strategy to fill the void left by Western, particularly French, withdrawal—capitalizing on the fragile security conditions in many Sahelian countries.

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The Sahel region has recently seen a notable increase in Russian influence through a strategic corridor stretching from Syria to eastern Libya and into the heart of Africa. This growing presence, especially as Western powers gradually pull back, is raising serious concerns in Washington and across European capitals, with fears of worsening regional instability.

According to a report published by African Defense Forum, affiliated with U.S. Africa Command (AFRICOM), Moscow has been working since late 2024 to reconfigure its alliance map following its declining role in Syria due to the collapse of the Assad regime. Libya has emerged as Russia’s new gateway to Africa, where it has begun redeploying troops and heavy military equipment in the east.

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Analysts argue that this Russian shift goes beyond physical geography; it represents a strategic attempt to fill the power vacuum left by the West, leveraging the weak security environments in several Sahelian nations.

Military analyst Andrew McGregor, of the Jamestown Foundation, notes that Moscow has strengthened its presence at Al-Khadim airbase, east of Benghazi, transforming it into a forward platform for weapons storage and resource smuggling to countries such as Mali and Burkina Faso.

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McGregor links this development to what he calls “Gaddafi’s military legacy,” suggesting that the Kremlin is reactivating the same infrastructure that the late Libyan leader once used in his 1980s push southward, backed then by the Soviets.

Investigative reports, including from Radio France Internationale, confirm the existence of an air bridge between Russia’s Syrian and Libyan bases. In May 2025, massive Antonov-124 cargo planes were observed flying from Syria to Al-Khadim, before transporting military hardware to Bamako and Ouagadougou.

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Although the cargo contents remain unclear, the aircraft’s size suggests they may be transporting air defense systems or armored vehicles—bolstering the military regimes that have come to power in recent years across Africa.

Le Monde reported at least eight documented flights between Syria and Libya from December 2024 to January 2025. Russian paramilitary social media platforms have circulated footage of heavy equipment bearing symbols that suggest continued Russian expansion from the Middle East to Africa.

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Researcher Lou Osborn, from the All Eyes on Wagner investigative platform, confirms Russia’s intensified cooperation with Libyan National Army commander Marshal Khalifa Haftar. This includes advanced weapon supplies and logistical assistance through ongoing flights from the Middle East.

Yet Osborn points out that Moscow, despite its backing of Haftar, is maintaining lines of communication with Abdelhamid Dbeibah’s government in Tripoli, while also strengthening coordination with countries like Algeria and Tunisia—highlighting Russia’s intent to construct a multi-pronged network of influence across North and sub-Saharan Africa.

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In a strategic move, Italian agency Nova reported that Russia has rehabilitated the long-abandoned Ma’tan as-Sarra airbase near the Sudan-Chad border—suggesting an intention to expand its influence inland. According to Anas El Gomati, director of Libya’s Sadeq Institute, this represents “a strategic foothold allowing Moscow to project power from the Mediterranean deep into Africa.”

He adds that the airbase gives Russia a logistical gateway to supply its allies in Sudan and Mali with weapons and fuel, particularly through coordination with Haftar’s forces, who secure transport routes.

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Conversely, Dbeibah has publicly rejected any attempts to turn Libya into a battleground for foreign powers. In an interview with The Guardian, he warned that the continued influx of Russian arms could worsen internal divisions and further complicate Libya’s political transition.

His concerns are echoed by researcher Jalel Harchaoui of the Royal United Services Institute, who believes the fragile balance Moscow tried to maintain among Libya’s factions is unraveling. Continued alignment with one party could expose Russia to mounting challenges.

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Observers note that the gradual retreat of Western powers—especially France and the U.S.—has handed Moscow a critical opportunity to reposition itself. Amid rising distrust toward former colonial powers, Russia appears better placed to forge new alliances—often using unconventional means such as private military firms and mercenaries.

In the absence of a unified Western strategy, fears persist that the Sahel could become a new epicenter of Russian influence—where geopolitical ambitions intertwine with economic and military interests—at a time when the region is already grappling with growing threats from terrorism, coups, and armed conflict.

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