The hopes of Libyans rest on a political breakthrough with elections next year

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The year 2024 did not bring the expected political breakthrough in Libya, with the crisis deepening and the same figures fighting for positions and clinging to their seats. The change in the head of the UN mission, with the departure of the previous envoy Abdoulaye Bathily and the arrival of the American Stephanie Khoury, has not brought any new developments on the scene, while the hopes of the Libyans remain pinned on holding the long-awaited presidential and parliamentary elections.

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The organization of the first phase of the municipal elections was a glimmer of light in a dark political tunnel, with the hope that the situation would end soon. However, the constitutional path in Libya is chaotic and controversial, with growing disagreements within both the High State Council and the Parliament, which insists on adopting “laws” through committees formed in Bouznika, Morocco.

According to a report by Boulevard Al-Wasat, the political elite has invented new crises throughout the year, the most notable of which was the crisis over the leadership of the Central Bank. This ended with the success of the Presidential Council in ousting the bank’s governor, Sadiq Al-Kabir, and appointing Naji Issa in his place, in a battle lost by the Parliament, which has had other confrontations with the Presidential Council, including the transitional justice and national reconciliation laws, and the debate over the creation of a Supreme Court. Meanwhile, the situation escalated with the elections for the State Council between Mohamed Takala and Khaled Al-Mishri, each considering himself the winner of the council presidency.

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The Prime Minister of the interim Government of National Unity, Abdel Hamid Dbeibeh, appears more determined than ever to keep his position in the final months of 2024, seizing every opportunity to attack everyone in order to remain the dominant player on the political scene.

During a meeting of the February 17 Revolution prisoners in Misrata on December 14, he criticized everyone, saying: “We are capable of holding elections, and we proved that in the recent municipal elections. I know that some parties will try to do temporary things to stay in the game, but we want clear constitutional rules for holding elections.”

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He also attacked the commander of the Libyan National Army, Marshal Khalifa Haftar, saying: “Some talk about reconciliation, but first, they must apologize to the Libyans for the invasion and killings. Is it reasonable that those who kill Libyans with airplanes announce a reconciliation?”

He added, “The Libyan people must help themselves and not wait for help from the international community. Even the UN will help Libya in its own way, not yours.”

The acting head of the UN mission, Stephanie Khoury, plans to create a temporary advisory committee to examine pending issues and propose practical solutions for a complete roadmap for elections, convinced that the current framework “remains a subject of controversy among Libyans.”

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This committee will not be a dialogue group responsible for decision-making but a means to generate options to be used in the follow-up phase by Libyan decision-makers. This means it ignores calls to revitalize the draft constitution, which has not yet been accepted for a public referendum.

However, observers downplay the chances of a breakthrough in the constitutional process, given that Khoury’s mandate is nearing its end. The Russian representative and several other members of the Security Council also called for the appointment of a new UN envoy to Libya at the recent Security Council meeting.

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Dbeibeh‘s political attacks have also targeted Parliament, claiming: “The Parliament has been working for 13 years and wants to stay for another 13! The Parliament advocates for a change of government, but what will happen after that?! They want to change the government to stay for more years, or perhaps they do not want to leave before they die.”

He added that there are four bodies hindering the political process: “the military system, the Muslim Brotherhood, the monarchist current, and Parliament.” He continued, “There are also ideological brothers who carry religion on their shoulders and use the Quran or its interpretation to govern us ideologically. I am specifically talking about the Muslim Brotherhood organization and its supporters. It is inconceivable that these organizations will govern us again with the sword.”

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The conflict has also reached the presidency of the High State Council, with a judicial confrontation between Al-Mishri, who considers himself the winner of one vote, and Takala, who rejected the results of the presidential elections last August, where a canceled ballot led to this dispute.

The High State Council is a consultative body created in place of the General National Congress following the 2015 agreement in Morocco. It cooperates with Parliament in drafting electoral laws, having worked for nearly two years in several joint dialogues between representatives of the two councils as part of the 6+6 commission before Parliament adopted non-consensual amendments to the first version, which Takala rejected.

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Although the constitutional process is the responsibility of legislative institutions, the executive power in Tripoli seeks to play a role in the political process by creating just laws to first organize parliamentary elections, and then the presidential ones, in order to rid themselves of their rivals in the eastern part of the country.

Dbeibeh also criticized the supporters of the monarchist current, saying: “We respect the king, but the past will not return. Let’s think about our children and grandchildren, because neither the popular system, nor the monarchy, nor religion will succeed. The only system that suits us is democracy.”

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