The Killing of Sinwar returns power to Hamas Leaders Abroad
The list of candidates to succeed Sinwar at the head of Hamas includes various prominent figures, most of whom reside in Qatar or other countries.
An Israeli report suggested that the sudden elimination of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar, confirmed by the Israeli army on Thursday evening, leaves the movement without strong leadership and could shift the center of power abroad, indicating that there are potential replacements for Sinwar.
The Hebrew website Ynet published a report on Friday proposing a list of potential names to succeed Sinwar amid a military escalation that shows no signs of a near end on the northern and southern fronts (Lebanon and Gaza).
This list includes various prominent figures within Hamas, most of whom live in Qatar or other countries. Except for a single candidate from Gaza, the rest are senior members of the movement’s political bureau, suggesting that Sinwar‘s death could return power to leaders abroad.
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The return of power to leaders abroad could soften many positions, including negotiations for the release of Israeli hostages and a ceasefire, while Sinwar‘s death could also revive Qatar’s mediating role, as leaders from the movement reside in Doha.
Turkey may also play a mediating role, hosting several influential leaders and exerting influence over them, similar to Qatar.
According to the Hebrew website, this represents a shift after years of power balance favoring figures in Gaza, and decisions will revert to Hamas‘s foreign branch, according to sources from the movement, which could help advance ceasefire negotiations.
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A source close to Hamas leadership stated that “Sinwar was a true leader who would promote and remove personalities within the movement based on his judgment. He controlled the decision-making process in an extreme manner, which was evident from the moment he took leadership. Communication with him was difficult, complex, and often troubled.”
The potential successor to Sinwar will need to gain acceptance from the movement’s leadership abroad and is likely to have some connections with Iran, while several names have emerged as candidates to succeed Sinwar.
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Khaled Mechaal
Among the potential candidates is Khaled Mechaal, regarded as one of the strongest figures in Hamas‘s political bureau, although his views differ from Sinwar‘s, particularly regarding relations with Iran.
Mechaal currently serves as the leader of Hamas‘s external wing and headed the movement’s political bureau for 21 years, from 1996 to 2017, before deciding to step down from his position. In 2021, he was re-elected as the leader of Hamas‘s external wing in an attempt to return to the Palestinian political scene. In 1997, he survived an assassination attempt during a failed Mossad operation in Jordan.
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Khalil al-Hayya
Khalil al-Hayya, Sinwar‘s deputy, is also a prominent name for leading the movement. He left the Gaza Strip before October 7, 2023, and has since been one of the key figures leading negotiations for a ceasefire and prisoner exchanges on behalf of the movement’s leadership in Gaza.
Al-Hayya also maintains close relations with Iran, having traveled after the assassination of former Hamas political bureau member Ismail Haniyeh to Tehran to attend his funeral. The New York Times reported that he was a member of the “closed military council” organized by Sinwar for two years to plan the October 7 attack and acted as a special envoy for secret discussions on this matter with Iran and Hezbollah.
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According to a source in Gaza, al-Hayya is seen as a strong candidate to become the president of Hamas‘s political bureau, adding that “Sinwar prepared him for this position and brought him closer to the Iranian elements that support Hamas. Al-Hayya’s strength within the group’s political bureau is now evident. He is seen as one of the few whom Sinwar trusted.”
Moussa Abou Marzouk
Moussa Abou Marzouk, who served as Haniyeh’s deputy when he was president of Hamas‘s political bureau, is considered one of the major figures in the movement’s political wing. Abou Marzouk has lived in the United States for many years and navigates between various Arab capitals.
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Over the past year, he has given a series of interviews worldwide, including one in which he stated that the tunnels built in Gaza aimed to protect Hamas and not the residents of the enclave, adding that “it is the responsibility of the United Nations to protect them.”
Abou Marzouk has also played a significant role in negotiations between Israel and Hamas. Unlike Mechaal, Abou Marzouk is not considered a charismatic or influential “threat” and has often benefited from a platform and attention from Haniyeh on various occasions.
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Mohamed Ismail Darwish
Last August, following Haniyeh’s assassination, reports indicated that the person expected to become president of Hamas‘s political bureau was Mohamed Ismail Darwish, who chairs the Hamas Shura Council.
It later appeared that Darwish had not been selected and that Sinwar had taken the role instead. However, Hamas published a photo of the Shura Council president meeting with Islamic Jihad leader Ziad al-Nakhalah last August, about two weeks after Sinwar‘s appointment as council president.
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The least likely character to take over the leadership of Hamas‘s political bureau is his brother, Mohamed Sinwar, who is expected to have already taken the presidency of Hamas‘s armed wing.
