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Iran’s main concern is the possibility that Trump might empower Netanyahu to strike Iranian nuclear sites, target specific individuals, and reintroduce the “maximum pressure” policy.

The Iranian leadership and its allies are bracing for what they consider a “nightmare scenario” in the upcoming U.S. presidential election: Donald Trump’s return to power, which is particularly alarming for Tehran given Trump’s declared intention to expand sanctions on Iran and curb Iranian nuclear threats.

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Polls indicate a close race between Republican Trump and Democrat Kamala Harris. However, Iranian leaders and their allies in Lebanon, Iraq, and Yemen fear Trump’s potential win in the November 5th election, which could exacerbate their struggles.

According to Iranian, Arab, and Western officials, Iran’s main concern lies in Trump potentially allowing Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to target Iranian nuclear sites and carry out targeted assassinations while reestablishing the “maximum pressure” policy by intensifying sanctions on the oil sector.

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Analysts anticipate that Trump, who served as president from 2017 to 2021, would apply maximum pressure on Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei to force him into accepting an agreement that would curb Iran’s nuclear program under conditions set by Trump and Israel.

This potential shift in U.S. leadership could have far-reaching implications for the Middle East power balance and reshape Iran’s foreign policy and economic future.

Analysts believe that, regardless of whether the next U.S. administration is led by Harris or Trump, Iran will lack the influence it once wielded due to Israel’s ongoing military campaign to weaken Iran’s armed allies, such as Hamas in Palestine and Hezbollah in Lebanon.

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Trump’s stance could be more damaging to Iran due to his unwavering support for Israel. Abdulaziz Al-Sager, chairman of the Gulf Research Center, stated, “Trump is likely to impose very strict conditions on Tehran or permit Israel to conduct targeted strikes on its nuclear facilities. He is fully supportive of military action against the Islamic Republic.”

A senior Iranian official, speaking anonymously, mentioned that Tehran is prepared for all possibilities, saying, “We have always found ways to export oil and bypass severe U.S. sanctions, and we have strengthened our global ties, regardless of who occupies the White House.”

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Another Iranian official, however, said that a Trump victory would be a “nightmare” as it would increase pressure on Iran to satisfy Israel and fully enforce oil sanctions, which could economically cripple the country.

In an October campaign speech, Trump said he does not wish to go to war with Iran but suggested Israel “should strike Iran’s nuclear program first.”

Analyst Hassan Hassan believes, “Trump will back Netanyahu in all of his plans… Trump is far worse for Iran than Harris.”

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Trump‘s potential return would be a “poisoned chalice” for Khamenei, who would have to negotiate to maintain the Islamic regime. The current U.S.-Saudi defense agreement under negotiation could also impact Iran’s geopolitical standing by strengthening the anti-Iran alliance in the region.

Throughout his campaign, Trump repeatedly asserted that President Joe Biden‘s policy of not imposing strict sanctions on oil exports has weakened Washington and emboldened Tehran, allowing it to sell oil, gather funds, and expand its nuclear efforts as well as its influence through armed groups.

In March, Trump stated in an interview with the Israeli newspaper Hayom that Iran could possess a nuclear weapon within 35 days and that Israel suffers from a “treacherous and highly dangerous neighborhood.”

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Israel considers Iran’s nuclear activity an existential threat, despite being widely believed to be the only country in the region possessing nuclear weapons.

An Arab government adviser indicated that Tehran is aware that a “new order is under construction,” but believes that despite his harsh rhetoric, Trump understands that there is no alternative to an agreement with Iran given its accelerated uranium enrichment program.

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The adviser added, “Trump might seek a new nuclear deal, claiming he tore up the 2015 deal because it was incomplete, and would secure a long-term agreement, promoting it as something that ‘makes America great again’ while preserving American interests.”

With the gradual weakening of the 2015 nuclear agreement over the years, Iran has raised the purity of its enriched uranium, reducing the time it would need to produce an atomic bomb if it chose to, though it denies any intent to do so.

The state-run news site Iran Online reported that at the end of Trump‘s term, Iran was enriching uranium at only 3.67%, according to the agreement, well below the 90% threshold required for nuclear weapons.

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The site adds that Iran now enriches uranium up to 60% using advanced IR-6 centrifuges and could achieve nuclear weapon capability “within weeks. Completing the nuclear deterrence cycle is Iran’s biggest trump card against Trump.”

Arab and Western officials warn that as Iran gets closer to developing a nuclear bomb, Israel feels an increasing need to intervene militarily.

A Western official stated, “If Trump returns to power, he will support Israeli plans to strike Iranian nuclear facilities.”

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Meanwhile, Tehran has downplayed recent Israeli strikes on its military facilities, while Israel claims to have established a “new balance of forces.” Analysts believe these strikes have weakened the Islamic Republic’s offensive capabilities, thus diminishing its deterrent capability.

While Iran acknowledges only “limited damage,” this mutual escalation is critical according to Western analysts. The strikes targeted Iranian air defenses and its retaliation capability.

The Hudson Institute in the U.S. noted that “Israel used nearly 100 fighter jets and possibly drones,” adding that the Israeli strikes targeted Iran’s missile production capacities and air defense engineering.

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Of the four Iranian sites for solid-fuel missile and rocket production, three were hit, located in Shahrud, Khojir (to the east), and Parchin (near Tehran), according to Fabian Hinz, an expert with the International Institute for Strategic Studies.

Hinz explains that Israel “intentionally targeted a crucial step in the manufacturing process, which will have serious consequences for missile production.”

The strikes also destroyed Russian S-300 air defense systems and long-range radar.

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The Washington-based Enterprise Institute reported that “American and Israeli officials confirmed that the strikes rendered the S-300 systems inoperable” and damaged radar sites “claimed to be able to detect ballistic missiles and stealth aircraft.”

Pierre Razoux, Academic Director of the Mediterranean Foundation for Strategic Studies, commented: “There is a race against time between Iran, which must produce as many precise and effective ballistic missiles as possible, and Israel, which must produce or obtain as many anti-missile missiles from the United States as possible,” adding that “the one whose ammunition runs out first will be in a very weakened position.”

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Thus, the confrontation takes on a global dimension. Iran is awaiting the Su-35 fighter jets promised by Russia 18 months ago, as well as a resupply of S-300 systems or their more advanced version, the S-400.

Iran pledged Thursday to “severely” retaliate against the Israeli attack on several of its military facilities, according to local media.

Mohammad Mohammadi Golpayegani, Chief of Staff to Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, said, according to the Tasnim news agency: “What the Zionist regime has done by attacking parts of our country is a desperate move to which the Islamic Republic of Iran will respond severely and make Israel regret.”

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For its part, the New York Times reported on Friday, citing three Iranian officials, that Khamenei ordered Iran’s Supreme National Security Council on Monday to prepare a new attack on Israel, as “the extent of the Israeli attack was too significant to ignore.”

Tehran has delivered Shahed drones to Russia in its war in Ukraine, but Moscow is mobilizing all its arsenal and defense industry to continue its war effort in Ukraine.

Pierre Razoux believes that “if Iran signs a strategic partnership with Russia,” batteries and fighter jets could be a valuable “gift.”

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Otherwise, if the Russians do not deliver them, Tehran will lack the means to properly defend its airspace.

Israel, on its side, relies on the support of Washington, reluctant to allow the two countries to confront each other directly.

The Hudson Institute stresses that “analyzing what Israel avoided targeting is crucial to understanding the geopolitical implications of the strikes,” adding that “pressure from Joe Biden‘s administration on Israeli political and military leaders limited the scale of the strikes.”

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Thus, according to Pierre Razoux and others, Iran’s nuclear program was spared, and they doubt Israel’s capability to destroy facilities located in underground bunkers.

Razoux adds, “The nuclear sites are spread out in multiple locations, some located under large cities.” Attacking these sites would lead to a bloody confrontation that Washington does not want.

According to Hinz, if the Iranians retaliate again, Israel would be ideally positioned to respond with greater force, while if they refrain, their opponent might see it as an invitation to resume strikes.

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The specialist from the International Institute for Strategic Studies concludes that “Iran will have to find a way to restore its deterrent capability, and I see few good options for it right now.”