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Tensions in the Central African Republic (CAR) provide a window into a larger battle for influence across Africa between Moscow and Washington.

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After Yevgeny Prigozhin, leader of the Wagner Group, rebelled against Russia’s top military commanders, his main ally in Africa panicked and turned to his enemy in the West for help, according to the American news agency “Associated Press.”

Officials in the CAR, where around 1,500 Wagner troops are stationed, wrote that day requesting an “urgent” meeting with a US private security company called “Bancroft Global Development” to discuss cooperation.

This request pushed the US – which had largely disengaged from the region for years – to try to maintain its presence and counter Russian advances by encouraging African nations to “distance themselves from Russian mercenaries.”

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Samuel Ramani, a fellow at the Royal United Services Institute, a defense and security think tank, noted that “if the US fails to regain a foothold, it could give Russia greater economic and political leverage.”

He added, “if Russia loses the Central African Republic, its leading model on the continent, it could trigger a domino effect in other countries.”

Russian Influence

In recent years, Russia has emerged as a favored security partner for a growing number of governments in the region, replacing traditional allies like France and the US.

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Moscow has expanded its military cooperation in Africa by using mercenaries like Wagner, who have operated in at least six countries since 2017, tasked with protecting African leaders and, in some cases, helping fight rebels and extremists. The CAR was one of the first places Wagner entered and was welcomed by locals and the government for its efforts in combating rebels who attempted to seize Bangui, the capital, in 2021.

The Russians have since expanded into Burkina Faso and Niger.

US Pressure

The US has been pressuring the CAR for years to find an alternative to Wagner, but these efforts have made little progress, according to a US official familiar with the talks, who requested anonymity due to the ongoing confidential discussions.

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What is Bancroft?

Based in Washington, Bancroft is a nonprofit organization operating in nine countries, five of which are in Africa. Its longest-standing presence is in Somalia, where it has been training Somali forces to combat the Al-Shabaab terrorist group for over 15 years.

Bancroft’s entry into the CAR last year was shrouded in secrecy until signs of its presence surfaced last fall.

According to Michael Stock, Bancroft’s founder, the group “entered the CAR at Bangui’s request.”

A significant portion of Bancroft’s funding comes from US and UN grants. From 2018 to 2020, it received over $43 million from the US.

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However, analysts like Amal Ali, a former US intelligence analyst, argue that despite its years in Somalia, Bancroft has not contributed to any real eradication of terrorism.

Uncertain Future

As the US and Russia compete over Africa, African governments say they want to make their own choices.

In the CAR, the extent of the state’s influence over Wagner’s mercenaries – highly regarded by many locals, integrated into society, brewing beer, and visiting markets – remains unclear.

 

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For many, Prigozhin was a national hero in this African country. People gather at a monument to Russian soldiers in the city center, placing flowers at its base in his honor, one year after his death.

However, the majority of Central Africans seem indifferent to the conflict between foreign powers.

“There are problems between the Americans and the Russians, but that doesn’t concern us,” said Jean-Louis Yet, who works at Bangui’s market. “We’re here to work, to do our best to make a living. All we want is security.”

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