Trump’s Plan for Gaza Closes the Door to Saudi-Israeli Normalization

Analysts believe that U.S. President Donald Trump’s plan to take control of Gaza will inevitably delay efforts to normalize relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel while fueling anti-American sentiment within the kingdom. Meanwhile, Riyadh has reaffirmed its outright rejection of any attempt to displace Palestinians, reiterating that a two-state solution is the only viable path to ending the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

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Trump’s proposal to redevelop Gaza and relocate over two million Palestinians to other countries has sparked widespread shock and outrage, particularly in the Arab world.

“If this is Trump’s policy, he has closed the door on Saudi Arabia recognizing Israel,” said James Dorsey, a researcher at the Middle East Institute at the National University of Singapore, speaking to AFP.

A Saudi recognition of Israel, if achieved, would be considered a major diplomatic victory for the U.S. in the Middle East, aimed at easing longstanding regional tensions.

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However, Saudi Arabia—the world’s largest oil exporter and the Middle East’s largest economy—cannot accept destabilization near its borders if Egypt and Jordan were to take in large numbers of displaced Gazans.

At the same time, Riyadh seeks to maintain friendly relations with Washington, its long-standing ally despite occasional tensions, and its main bulwark against regional rival Iran.

Dorsey explains, “When it comes to security, the kingdom has nowhere to turn but Washington. There’s no one else… They won’t turn to China. It is neither willing nor capable. And after Ukraine, can Russia really be relied upon?”

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The Saudis had been engaged in preliminary talks with Israel via the U.S. until just days before the outbreak of the Gaza war. However, following Hamas’s unprecedented attack on Israel on October 7, 2023, they halted negotiations and hardened their stance.

When Trump proposed transferring Gaza’s residents to Egypt and Jordan and making the enclave U.S.-controlled, Riyadh swiftly rejected the plan.

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Within an hour, the Saudi Foreign Ministry issued a statement on X, firmly rejecting “any attempt to displace the Palestinian people from their land.”

Krieg concludes, “I don’t think the Saudis will take any major steps now. They have their own tools to pressure America, particularly in the energy sector, but I don’t think they want to use them at this stage.”

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