A recent Turkish intelligence report highlights alarming strategic shifts in ISIS activity, as the group increasingly focuses on expanding across Africa following the decline of its influence in Iraq and Syria. According to Zaman Arabi, the report, issued by the Turkish National Intelligence Organization (MIT), reveals that ISIS is targeting regions suffering from security and structural vulnerabilities, particularly Libya, Mali, Mozambique, and the Sahel countries.

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The report states that ISIS has restructured its operations around a model of “decentralized provinces,” giving local branches more flexibility in planning and execution while maintaining the group’s core ideology. This strategy enables the group to operate without a clear central command, making security operations against it more difficult and enhancing its resilience.

It also points out that ISIS increasingly relies on illicit economic activities to fund its operations, including arms and drug trafficking, extortion, and the kidnapping of civilians for ransom. Intelligence data suggest that the group is attempting to transform itself from a mere terrorist organization into an economic player in conflict zones, taking advantage of chaos, ethnic strife, and institutional voids.

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The report warns that social factors such as high unemployment, poverty, and the lack of basic services create fertile ground for recruitment and expansion. The group exploits narratives of religious and ethnic grievance to attract new recruits, capitalizing on weak local governments and their failure to provide security and development.

Experts believe this expansion poses a direct threat to both regional and international security, as some African ISIS affiliates now possess the financial and human resources needed to carry out cross-border attacks. The report warns of a potential spread of ISIS influence into more stable regions, such as Senegal and Ghana, if not contained urgently.

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The report concludes by recommending a comprehensive counterterrorism approach in Africa—one that goes beyond military confrontation to include economic development support, improved living conditions, and enhanced cooperation between African nations and international partners in intelligence sharing and joint operations.

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