Washington does not want Moscow to dominate the Libyan scene
Russia considers individual countries' campaigns to confront Libya with it only help solidify the existing lines of division on the ground and delay the prospects of reaching a settlement among the Libyans
The United States has increased its interest in Libya, coinciding with Russia’s attempts to establish its presence in this country, indicating an intensification of competition and conflict between the two poles over the oil-rich country. This comes amidst the ongoing political deadlock, hindering the long-awaited presidential and parliamentary elections.
The U.S. Special Envoy to Libya, Richard Norland, visited the capital, Tripoli (west), and Benghazi (east) on December 21. Benghazi was also the destination of Russian Deputy Defense Minister Yunus-Bek Yevkurov, who met with the commander of the Libyan army, Khalifa Haftar. These visits followed others by political and intelligence officials since the beginning of 2023. Observers believe that the Russian side is seeking to secure its presence in eastern Libya, while Washington aims to empower Haftar in the country, considering he holds American citizenship.
Sources confirm that the Russian role is increasing in the Libyan scene, opening up to all parties and reshaping the position of conflicting parties, activating Russian influence and confirming military presence in eastern Libya.
Since early 2022, there have been two governments in Libya, one led by Oussama Hammad, endorsed by the House of Representatives (east), and the other recognized by the United Nations, the Government of National Unity led by Abdul Hamid Dbeibah. Dbeibah refuses to hand over power unless to a newly elected parliament.
There are disagreements between the State Council (advisory parliament) and the House of Representatives regarding proposed electoral laws. The latter published the proposed electoral laws in the official gazette, although the former expressed objections, considering them a violation of constitutional amendments and invalid. In late November 2023, the UN envoy, Abdoulaye Bathily, called for a five-party meeting including the Presidential Council, the State Council, the Government of National Unity, the House of Representatives, and the forces in the east led by Haftar.
Despite the consent of the concerned parties, excluding the House of Representatives, to participate in the five-party meetings, they have not started yet, and the UN mission has not clarified its position on them.
There are increasing questions about whether recent U.S. and Russian movements will push Libyan political parties to accept the invitation to the five-party meeting, attempting to remove political obstacles to hold elections, or if there are undisclosed motives and goals behind these movements.
Political analyst Mohammed Mahfouz stated, “The moves of the U.S. envoy Norland come within the framework of promoting the idea of the five-party table; it was basically his idea, and the UN mission adopted it. Norland is pushing for the five parties to meet.”
He added that “the consecutive visits are for pressure only, and I do not think there are other undisclosed goals. As for the issue of Russian influence, it is not as simple as (the U.S.) dealing with visits or meetings like these at the envoy level.”
Mahfouz considered that “the visit of the U.S. envoy is not a helpful factor in overcoming the political deadlock since Washington talks a lot and does not do anything. Recently, we heard a lot of threats and warnings of sanctions from the United States, but we have not seen anything. This has made many local parties not obliged to follow Washington’s views or the pressure of the U.S. envoy.”
He continued, “Alongside this movement, which has a lot of words and little action, there is movement from Russia on the ground, with military bases through Wagner Group.” He pointed out that “there is talk today about the formation of an ‘African Legion’ (Russian military) in countries, including Libya. Thus, while the United States speaks through its envoy, Russia is on the ground saying and doing.” However, Mahfouz expressed concern that “Libya could turn into a battlefield of war and international conflict, especially if Russia proceeds with the issue of the African Legion. According to sources, among the countries where this legion will be present are Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger, Central Africa, and Libya.”
He emphasized, “If we look at these countries, Libya is the most important due to its strategic location, military bases, and proximity to Europe. Therefore, unless there is a real national decision, Libya will undoubtedly turn into a conflict zone.”
Sources say that Russia is uncomfortable with any Western presence in Libya, considering it a strategic region and its gateway to Africa and support for its operations. In recent statements, Russian Foreign Ministry International Organizations Department Director Pyotr Ilyichev said that Western countries – not naming them – are trying to turn Libya into a new arena of confrontation with Russia. In a conversation with the Russian Novosti news agency, he stated that Libya has practically become divided into two parts, teetering on the edge of a civil war and turning into a source of illegal migration. He added that individual countries’ campaigns to make Libya confront his country only help solidify the existing lines of division on the ground and delay the prospects of reaching a settlement among the Libyans.
Among the contentious points in the proposed electoral laws, the State Council and political parties insist on preventing military personnel and dual citizens (applying to Haftar) from running for the presidency, while the House of Representatives insists on allowing them to run.
Political analyst Faraj Dardour believes that “the visits and meetings of U.S. officials with Haftar, if only to pressure him, they might have sufficed with one visit or a phone call.” He added, “But these repeated visits come within the framework of coordination between Washington and Haftar. Washington wants to empower Haftar through Russia, so he does not count on the United States.”
Dardour expressed his belief that “the Americans are not more interested in Libyan affairs than their interest in Haftar’s control, considering him an American citizen, over Libya and also limiting his dealings with Russia. This is the American concern.” He ruled out that “Russia is willing to engage in direct confrontation with the United States, which knows the limits of Russian capabilities and their ultimate goals and the extent of their impact on national security and economy. Each of them is walking in their kingdom, and no one approaches the other.”
He considered that “everything happening in Libya is a sharing of interests and consideration between major countries for each other’s interests without friction.”
