Why did terrorism increase in 2023?
The world seems to be witnessing many of the most violent and extreme events of 2023, amidst expectations of a doubling of terrorism rates in the world, based on a combination of the factors affecting many armed and related terrorist groups.
Today, the terrorist threat is greatly increased, and although counter-terrorism is no longer at the top of the national security hierarchy in many countries, it remains a challenge everywhere, primarily through terrorist organizations such as al-Qaida and ISIS.
Terrorism likely to double
A recent study showed that many Arab and Western countries are experiencing increased rates of terrorism crimes, which depend on the connections some terrorist groups have with each other, helping some of them restructure in preparation for a more active comeback.
Well-informed sources also reported that terrorist groups and organizations around the world are exploiting the deterioration of the economy in countries, especially in many Arab countries and the region, and the political, security, and social instability. The food and gas crises and the deterioration of the economy around the world following the Russian-Ukrainian war also constitute a fertile environment for the activities of terrorist organizations.
Although questions remain about the leadership and strategy of these groups, they are still intent on undermining the West and spreading extremist jihadist ideology throughout Asia, the Middle East, and Africa, according to informed sources.
The study also considered that the trends and expectations of terrorism in 2023 and the expected activity in international terrorism are based on several important considerations, the most prominent of which is polarization and crisis, especially in the post-Ukrainian war period, which has, directly and indirectly, affected international counter-terrorism efforts, and which provides a stimulating environment for terrorist activity.
The Terrorist Landscape and the United States
The global and domestic terrorist landscape in the United States represents the fact that counterterrorism is no longer the overriding national security priority of the United States as it has been for nearly two decades.
In addition, the enduring threat posed by longstanding terrorist adversaries such as al-Qaeda and ISIS – including who will succeed Ayman al-Zawahiri as al-Qaeda’s emir – and the Biden administration’s success will “prove a counter-terrorism strategy across the horizon” in the long term, as well as reviving an old threat that has become new.
The trajectory of homegrown terrorism as political divisions deepen in the United States in the run-up to the 2024 presidential election will increase in 2023.
A Possible Return to Iraq
The terrorist repercussions of 2023 in Iraq also indicate that the crises the country faces during this period point to the activation of terrorist crimes in a fertile environment for terrorism, especially ISIS, taking advantage of the country’s economic and political events.
The study also indicated that 2023 will witness an increasing return of the organization in Iraq, after the end of last year witnessed many attacks; Dozens of soldiers were killed.
Terrorist operations in Syria
Many researchers expect that terrorist operations will increase in Syria during the past period, which is an upward trend during the new year, in light of some considerations. The first is that ISIS and al-Qaeda seek to revive their presence in Syria.
The geopolitical changes taking place in the Syrian arena are also part of the tacit compromises made among some regional parties, such as Turkey, Iran, and Russia, which have been challenged by armed factions such as Tahrir al-Sham, which have adopted an escalatory approach at the operational level in confronting these changes.
