After two years of presidential vacancy… Is the specter of war in Lebanon paving the way to Baabda?

22nd September 2024

3 minutes read

After two years of presidential vacancy... Is the specter of war in Lebanon paving the way to Baabda?

At a critical juncture, Hezbollah in Lebanon is receiving successive painful blows after explosions targeted its communication devices last Tuesday and Wednesday, followed by a new wave of assassinations of its leaders this Friday.

With the Lebanese state, already suffering from economic and social crises, on the brink of a full-scale war and unprecedented threats, is Hezbollah ready to make internal concessions to resolve the deadlocked presidential file, stalled since October 31, 2022, and facilitate the election of a new president, especially with Paris actively calling on political forces to speed up the election?

The Israeli army has expanded its operations on the northern front. Less than 48 hours after the simultaneous explosions of Hezbollah’s communication devices, which resulted in dozens of deaths and thousands of injuries, Israeli airstrikes targeted two buildings in the southern suburbs of Beirut, killing 14 people in an initial toll, including Ibrahim Aqil, the head of the Radwan forces and the leader of Hezbollah’s special operations, as well as other elite commanders of the party during an underground meeting. Aqil’s assassination comes after the killing of Hezbollah commander Fouad Shaker, who was killed in an Israeli airstrike at the end of last July in the same area.

No retreat

Lebanese strategic expert Brigadier General Najy Malaab said that Hezbollah is unlikely to give up the presidency unless it finds a president who agrees to keep its weapons outside the authority of the state, something that most Lebanese refuse.

He added that “regardless of Hezbollah‘s losses, they will not result in giving up on the presidency unless there is a president who agrees to allow weapons to remain outside the control of the state.”

A president, immediately

Richard Kouyoumjian, head of foreign relations for the Lebanese Forces, said: “Will the current events push Hezbollah to act rationally or not? We hope that everyone returns to their senses, that a new president is elected, and that the obstruction to this election ends, handing all powers back to the state, even though it is weak and fragile.”

Kouyoumjian added: “Had the state and its institutions, led by the Lebanese army, taken control of matters, we would have avoided the disasters of the war that Hezbollah imposed on the Lebanese on October 8, and whose repercussions we suffer today.”

The Lebanese Forces official stressed the importance of returning to the constitution, which stipulates calling for a parliamentary session to elect the president and continuing the sessions until the election is completed.

Kouyoumjian also called on Speaker Nabih Berri to immediately convene a session to elect the president, stating that this would help save the country from the current political crisis.

Lebanon has been in a presidential vacancy since October 31, 2022, when the term of former President Michel Aoun ended without the election of a successor.

A historic stance

MP Adib Abdelmassih stated on the “X” platform that “Hezbollah‘s best response to the cyberattacks and the Lebanese solidarity in the wake of these attacks would be to facilitate the election of a president, restore lost legitimacy, and return to the fold of the Lebanese state.”

He added: “It is time for a historic decision to protect the Lebanese, stop the destruction, and rebuild the state.”

Meanwhile, French President Emmanuel Macron addressed the Lebanese directly on Thursday evening in a video posted on social media, affirming that “the diplomatic path is still available” and that “war is not inevitable.”

Ambassadors from the five-nation committee on Lebanon also urged the Lebanese parliament to complete the presidential election as soon as possible to end the presidential vacuum.

The five-nation committee, which includes Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, France, and the United States, resumed its work in Beirut a few days ago at the ambassadorial level. In May, the ambassadors outlined a roadmap for the presidential election, calling for limited consultations between political blocs to agree on a candidate or a shortlist of candidates. After that, deputies should attend an open electoral session in parliament, with successive rounds until a new president for Lebanon is elected.