Somalia on Two Fronts: Progress Against Terrorism and Political Challenges

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Somalia is undergoing a decisive moment, marked by both intensified military efforts against terrorist organizations and growing political tensions between the federal states and the central government in Mogadishu.

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While Puntland forces have ramped up operations to deal heavy blows to the Islamic State group entrenched in the Cal Miskad mountains, they have found support from neighboring Jubaland, which has also issued sharp political statements rejecting what it views as the capital’s attempt at “excessive centralization.”

Although recent security gains underscore progress in the war against terrorism, they are overshadowed by a widening crisis of trust between federal states and the central authority, casting uncertainty over Somalia’s political and security stability in the coming years.

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Military advances
Puntland forces have launched a series of intensive offensives targeting ISIS strongholds in the rugged terrain of the Cal Miskad range, a strategic hub for the group’s activities in Somalia.

State security officials confirmed that recent raids resulted in the elimination of several militants and the dismantling of arms caches hidden in villages such as Silasha Ilalo Yar and Silasha Ilalo Weyne.

Local Somali media cited officers affirming the success of a multi-pronged offensive designed to secure key positions and deprive extremists of safe havens, delivering a significant blow to the group in the region.

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These developments reaffirm Puntland’s determination to continue fighting terrorism as part of its efforts to restore stability in northeastern Somalia.

Political tensions
In parallel with its battlefield achievements, Puntland, along with Jubaland, voiced strong political support for the opposition “National Salvation Forum,” which advocates for a consensual resolution to Somalia’s political crisis, especially regarding the electoral process.

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Both federal states emphasized that President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud’s term will end on May 15, 2026, warning against unilateral decisions that bypass constitutional and political agreements.

Jubaland, in an official statement, stressed the need for an “inclusive national consultation,” while criticizing the central government’s preoccupation with short-term political gains at the expense of vital priorities such as counterterrorism and national unity.

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Puntland went even further, arguing that the president’s disregard for political agreements and the provisional constitution has plunged the country into political turmoil and uncertainty about its future. It called for broad national dialogue to restore legitimacy and institutional balance.

The opposition coalition represented by the “Somali Rescue Forum,” composed of prominent political actors, stepped up its criticism of the government after its meeting in Mogadishu on August 30–31. The forum firmly rejected any extension of the presidential mandate beyond the constitutional deadline and urged a renewed focus on combating terrorism rather than indulging in constitutional amendments and electoral disputes.

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It also demanded the cancellation of recent constitutional amendments, claiming that the electoral law, the party regulations, and the electoral commission appointed by the president lack transparency, thereby jeopardizing the integrity of the next elections.

Former President Sharif Sheikh Ahmed also issued a stern warning, stressing that Al-Shabaab, the Al-Qaeda-affiliated group, has regained control of previously liberated areas and is actively planning further territorial expansion.

Speaking at a press conference in Mogadishu, he criticized the government for failing to adequately confront the insurgency, noting that political infighting has left the country exposed. He warned that Al-Shabaab fighters have already increased their presence on the outskirts of the capital in recent weeks, posing a direct threat to Mogadishu.

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