The Countdown to Trump’s Inauguration: Gaza Truce Hopes Fade amid Rising Tensions

29th December 2024

2 minutes read

The Countdown to Trump's Inauguration: Gaza Truce Hopes Fade amid Rising Tensions

As the countdown to Donald Trump‘s official inauguration as U.S. President on January 20 begins, hopes for a truce agreement in Gaza are fading, raising questions about the reaction of the president-elect, who has already issued stern warnings.

Earlier in December, Trump warned that the Middle East would face “hell itself” if all hostages held by Palestinian factions in Gaza were not released before his inauguration on January 20. Meanwhile, President Joe Biden had made mediation for a truce a top priority in his final months in office.

According to Israeli and U.S. officials involved in the Gaza ceasefire talks, cited by “Axios,” the chances of reaching an agreement before Trump takes office are slim.

How Would Trump React?

It remains unclear what Trump means by “a heavy price,” and a source close to the president-elect indicated there is no plan in place if Trump‘s deadline is missed.

Some Israeli officials believe that if no agreement is reached, the incoming president might support Israeli measures that Biden‘s administration had opposed, such as reducing humanitarian aid to Palestinians in Gaza.

American and Israeli officials report that Mohammed Al-Sinwar, the top Hamas military commander in Gaza and brother of slain Hamas leader Yahya Al-Sinwar, appears unyielding in the face of Trump‘s threats.

A Window of Opportunity

A U.S. source directly involved in the talks said there is still a possibility of reaching an agreement within the next three weeks.

However, if negotiations fail to yield results by January 20, the power transition to Trump is likely to delay talks for several months, increasing the risk of further hostage casualties.

Currently, 100 hostages remain in Hamas custody in Gaza, including seven Americans. According to Israeli intelligence, approximately half of the hostages are believed to be alive, including three Americans.

Limited Progress in Talks

Israeli negotiators returned from Doha earlier this week after eight days of discussions mediated by Qatar and Egypt, which yielded no significant breakthroughs.

CIA Director Bill Burns and White House Middle East Adviser Brett McGurk, who were also in Doha, have returned to Washington skeptical about the chances of reaching an agreement before January 20.

Current Situation

Israeli and Hamas officials exchanged accusations on Wednesday over the lack of progress. Hamas claimed that Israel introduced unacceptable new demands, while Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu accused Hamas of “lying and violating previously reached understandings.”

An Israeli official noted that while some progress was made in Doha, fundamental issues remain unresolved, such as whether any agreement would include a full ceasefire and Israel’s withdrawal from Gaza.

Netanyahu emphasized that he was unwilling to proceed with a deal without knowing the specific details, including the names of hostages who are still alive.