U.S. Support Halted: Dangerous Scenarios for Ukraine in Its Fight against Russia

3rd March 2025

2 minutes read

U.S. Support Halted: Dangerous Scenarios for Ukraine in Its Fight against Russia

Western military aid has been the cornerstone of Ukraine’s ability to bridge the vast resource gap against the Russian army.

However, growing tensions between Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and former U.S. President Donald Trump have raised questions about Kyiv’s ability to withstand the war without this support, and what the cessation of American funding could mean for the military and diplomatic landscape.

The British newspaper The Independent cited a report from the German Kiel Institute that attempts to answer these questions by analyzing the significance of U.S. aid to Ukraine.

The Scale of U.S. Support Compared to Other Countries

According to the institute’s estimates, nearly half of the military aid—totaling £103 billion—sent by allies to Ukraine has come from the United States, with American contributions reaching approximately £51 billion.

Germany and the United Kingdom rank second and third, having provided £10 billion and £8 billion, respectively.

When comparing aid as a percentage of each country’s GDP, the U.S. ranks much lower on the list of Ukraine’s supporters. Its contribution accounts for 0.296% of its GDP, placing it 17th in terms of military support relative to economic size.

Denmark is the largest military supporter of Ukraine in proportion to its GDP, providing 2.038%. It is followed by Estonia, Lithuania, Latvia, and Finland—all nations that share a border with Russia or its enclave, Kaliningrad.

However, the loss of U.S. military support could be devastating for Ukraine. This is why Zelensky insists that U.S. security guarantees, as part of any peace agreement with Russia, are the only way to prevent future conflicts. He also stresses that European support alone will not be sufficient. In an interview last month on NBC’s Meet the Press, he stated that Ukraine’s chances of survival without U.S. support would be “slim.”

Key American Weapons Ukraine Relies On

U.S. military aid includes advanced strategic weapons that have made a significant difference on the battlefield, including:

Patriot Air Defense Systems – Crucial for protecting Ukrainian cities from Russian missile attacks, helping intercept many enemy rockets and drones.
Long-Range ATACMS Missiles – With a range of over 300 km, these missiles have allowed Ukraine to strike deep into Russian military bases, limiting Russia’s ability to launch devastating glide bombs.

HIMARS Rocket Systems – This precision system changed the war’s dynamics in 2022, helping Ukraine target Russian ammunition depots and command centers.
Abrams and T-72 Tanks – The U.S. has sent 31 Abrams tanks and 45 T-72 tanks, which have been used in counteroffensive operations.
Helicopters & Patrol Boats – The U.S. provided 20 Mi-17 helicopters and over 100 patrol boats, improving Ukraine’s river and coastal surveillance.

What Happens if U.S. Aid Stops?

If Trump follows through on his threats and halts support, several dangerous scenarios could unfold, including critical ammunition shortages, increased vulnerability to Russian airstrikes, weakened European commitment, and territorial losses for Ukraine—potentially shifting the war’s course.