Ukraine and the specter of nuclear war in 2024: A tightrope walk

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The term “nuclear weapons” has never resonated as strongly since the end of the Cold War in 1991 as it has in 2024, with Russia revising its nuclear doctrine and escalating tensions with the West.

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The darkest scenario is Russia using nuclear weapons in the face of escalation with the West in Ukraine, which has reached a point where Ukraine could use long-range weapons to target Russian territory.

The nuclear doctrine was part of the “Russian military doctrine” announced by Russian President Vladimir Putin in 2000, later becoming a separate document in 2020.

On April 21, 2000, Russia announced its first general military doctrine, considering nuclear weapons a means of deterring aggression and ensuring the military security of the Russian Federation and its allies.

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Then President Dmitry Medvedev signed the second military document on February 5, 2010, before the authorities published the third revision of the military doctrine on December 25, 2014.

In these updated versions, the sections related to nuclear weapons underwent no changes, with the documents viewing them as a key factor in preventing the emergence of nuclear military conflicts and others.

This situation continued until Putin issued a decree separating the “nuclear doctrine” from the “general military doctrine” in 2020, including modifications that specified the scenarios and conditions under which Russia might use nuclear weapons.

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The major scenarios included: an attack on Russia or one of its allies with any weapons of mass destruction, including nuclear, chemical, biological, and other unconventional weapons, or any attack threatening the existence of the state.

In 2024, Russia introduced modifications to this doctrine, including the decision to ease the restrictions on the use of its nuclear arsenal to deter its adversaries. It updated its nuclear doctrine on November 19, 2024, after the United States allowed Ukraine to use long-range ATACMS missiles to strike military targets inside Russia.

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New changes

The Kremlin announced at the time that Russia would theoretically ease controls on the first use of nuclear weapons.

Under the recent changes to the nuclear doctrine, nuclear retaliation would no longer be limited to a nuclear attack on Russian territory, but would extend to any non-nuclear attack, whether by drones, fighter jets, or any unconventional weapon, against Russia or its ally Belarus.

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The new revisions stated that “any aggression against the Russian Federation or its allies by a non-nuclear state with the participation or support of a nuclear state would be considered a joint attack,” adding that “Russia could consider launching a nuclear strike if it or its ally Belarus were attacked with conventional weapons threatening their sovereignty or territorial integrity.”

It also added that “Russia could use nuclear weapons if it suffered a nuclear attack by an enemy or a conventional attack threatening the existence of the state.”

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Russia possesses the largest nuclear arsenal, known as the “Apocalypse weapons,” and holds the most advanced launch systems in the world. According to the Union of Concerned Scientists, Russia had about 5,977 nuclear warheads as of 2022, compared to 5,428 for the U.S.

Reports state that approximately 1,500 of these warheads have been decommissioned, 2,889 are in reserve, and 1,588 are deployed as strategic nuclear warheads.

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Nuclear escalation

Observers estimate that the recent changes to the nuclear doctrine, as well as the decision by Washington to allow Kyiv to use long-range weapons against Russia, heighten concerns about nuclear escalation.

On this subject, Janice Stein, founding director of the School of Public Policy and Global Affairs and professor of conflict management at the University of Toronto, said: “It is impossible to estimate the probability of nuclear escalation. The bombing of Hiroshima and Nagasaki by the U.S. in 1945 is the only time nuclear weapons were used.”

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Stein spoke about a potential scenario of nuclear weapon use in Ukraine and noted: “In one of the discussed scenarios, Russia would use a tactical nuclear weapon to force Ukraine to end the fighting and agree to cede Crimea and the four Ukrainian regions currently occupied by Russia.”

She added: “The explosion of a tactical nuclear weapon would offer very limited advantages for Russian forces on the ground, and there are risks that the damage from the attack would also hit Russian forces nearby.”

She continued in an article on the “Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists” website: “The damage caused by a single tactical nuclear weapon would not be severe enough to undermine the morale of the Ukrainian people.”

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However, she stressed: “The explosion of a single tactical nuclear weapon – no matter how small – would break the nuclear taboo that has existed for almost eight decades.”

Pressure tools

Researcher Rishi Paul wrote: “During the Cold War, U.S. and Russian leaders generally believed nuclear weapons provided no real political or military advantage against an adversary with secure second-strike capabilities.”

He added: “Since the beginning of the war in Ukraine, Putin has altered this model by using nuclear weapons as tools of pressure and political influence. From his perspective, nuclear threats are used as instruments of deterrence and psychological warfare, calculated to put pressure on adversaries while avoiding direct use.”

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Regarding the recent revisions to Russia’s nuclear doctrine, the researcher wrote in an article on the “European Leadership Network” website: “Putin has formalized the revised Russian nuclear doctrine ‘at the right moment,’ to further deter Western military intervention without provoking direct confrontation.”

However, he concluded by stating: “Nevertheless, the possibility of using low-yield nuclear weapons cannot be excluded,” specifying: “Although this decision is unlikely, it could manifest as a warning nuclear strike over a remote area in Ukraine if Putin deems an imminent threat exists.”

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