Who determines the winner in Iran’s Presidential Elections? Experts answer

Iran is approaching crucial presidential elections, with more than 80 candidates awaiting the announcement from the Guardian Council regarding the final list of eligible candidates. In this context, many are questioning the role of hidden forces and the media in determining the winner in this complex electoral race.


Hidden Forces

As the Iranian presidential elections approach, about 80 candidates are awaiting the decision of the Guardian Council on the final list of names allowed to participate in the elections scheduled for later this month.

This body is an integral part of the electoral process, issuing decisions based on precise criteria that determine who can compete. Observers believe that hidden forces play a significant role in determining the preferred candidate of the regime, based on internal and external political and economic circumstances.

Conversely, others believe that electoral programs and economic factors have a greater influence on voters’ decisions. The media also plays a crucial role in influencing undecided voters, known as the “grey circle”. This media role helps shape and direct public opinion towards or against a particular candidate.

Role of the Media

Hani Suleiman, an expert on Iranian affairs, points out that several factors play a role in determining the winner of the presidential elections. The first of these factors is the position of the Guardian Council, intelligence agencies, and government institutions towards each candidate. After overcoming this hurdle, the candidate faces other challenges in convincing the public and voters of their electoral program, where the role of “hidden forces” comes into play.

Suleiman explains that these hidden forces include media institutions directed by the military establishment. For example, in recent days, a smear campaign has been conducted against several candidates, including General Vahid Haghanian, by the “Tasnim” agency affiliated with the Revolutionary Guards. These campaigns aim to tarnish the image of the candidates and discredit them in front of voters through accusations of corruption and fabricated charges.

He adds that media activities have increased significantly on Iranian platforms such as “Eitaa”, “Soroush”, and “Rabika”. These platforms are used in media campaigns preceding the Guardian Council’s announcement on candidate validation, focusing on discrediting candidates belonging to the reformist and moderate currents.

Economic Factors

On the other hand, Mohammad Mohsen, an expert in Iranian affairs, believes that the economic situation is the decisive factor in the presidential elections. He points out that if a candidate offers practical promises to improve the economic situation and has the strength and influence to garner significant state support for their ideas, their chances of winning increase.

Mohsen explains that the majority of Iranians, whether rich or poor, are dissatisfied with the current situation. He asserts that improving the standard of living and creating decent jobs are things that could restore a sense of security and happiness to the citizens.

He highlights that reliance on natural resources such as oil and gas is no longer sufficient to ensure the well-being of citizens, even in low-population-density countries like the Gulf states, which have begun to diversify their income sources beyond oil.

Conclusions and Predictions

Observers believe that the analyses confirm that the Iranian presidential elections are managed through complex mechanisms involving interactions from the Guardian Council, intelligence agencies, and media machinery. These combined factors create an electoral environment where each plays a role in determining the strongest candidate.

They add that these dynamics are expected to continue in the near future, with the Guardian Council and the media remaining influential factors in determining the election winner, while citizens continue to seek candidates offering practical solutions to improve the economic situation.

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