Turkey is entering a cycle of conflict between Russia and Ukraine

“At the height of the Russia-Ukraine crisis, Erdogan heard Russian President Vladimir Poutin’s warnings not to allow unauthorized Black Sea actors to use it for their own benefit – an indirect warning to Ankara not to be drawn into the Russia-Ukraine conflict.”

However, on the day after his conversation with Putin, that is, on Saturday, Erdogan received his Ukrainian counterpart, Volodymyr Zelensky. After their meeting, Erdogan called for an end to the “worrying” developments in the Donbas region in eastern Ukraine, adding that Turkey is ready to provide any necessary support.

Speaking at a press conference with Zelensky, Erdoğan said he hoped the conflict could be resolved peacefully through dialog on the basis of diplomatic norms, in line with international laws and Ukraine’s territorial integrity.

Zelensky said that Kiev and Ankara have identical positions on threats in the Black Sea region and the response to those threats.

At the joint press conference with Erdoğan, he added that he had briefed Erdogan “in detail” on the situation in eastern Ukraine’s Donbas region.

“We discussed in detail the issues of security and the joint response to the challenges in the Black Sea region, and it should be noted that the views of Kiev and Ankara on the same threats and the means to respond to these threats are identical”, he said.

Erdoğan said on Saturday that Turkey and Ukraine were discussing cooperation in the defense industry, but added that this was “by no means a move against third countries”.

Erdoğan’s simplification of the situation is not commensurate with the reality on the ground between the two countries. Erdoğan, as usual, wants to get Turkey involved in the crisis to reap some gains while the public is preoccupied with a new conflict.

After six years of turbulent and sometimes violent truce, the specter of a new war between Russia and Ukraine looms. “In response to what Moscow calls a recent crackdown by Kiev on pro-Russian media and politicians, Moscow has launched a massive military buildup along the Ukrainian border”.

“The situation is particularly volatile in Donbas, where the ceasefire between the Ukrainian army and Moscow-sponsored separatist territory has effectively collapsed”.

Both sides accuse each other of provocations and regular exchanges of fire as military and civilian casualties increase.

Amid this bitter reality, both countries claim to be doing everything they can to avoid a new war cycle.

Tensions began to rise two months ago, when Kyiv’s growing frustration with Moscow’s intransigence in the Donbas talks overlapped with the weakening of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky at home. Moscow says he lacks political and diplomatic experience.

“The Ukrainian president’s offer of the country’s new security strategy, which emphasizes the aspiration to join NATO and focuses primarily on confronting Russia and seeking more Turkish support, exacerbated the situation and provoked Moscow, which is steadily deteriorating relations with both NATO and the Europeans.”

With Moscow massing troops on Ukraine’s eastern border and in Crimea, Kyiv has little chance of standing firm if things develop into a military confrontation. However, there are reasons to believe that neither party intends to wage war.

From Ukraine’s perspective, the attack in Donbas is likely to give Russia a pretext to intervene in the region.

The purpose of the current military buildup is seen as limited to Moscow sending messages to Kiev and Washington that Russia is prepared to respond forcefully to any military attempts to change the status quo in Donbas.

“However, the absence of rational motives for war does not prevent a crisis that is casually spiraling out of control.” The tense atmosphere and losses suffered by both sides increase the likelihood that a domestic misstep or rogue act will draw the two countries into a new military confrontation. Lack of restraint can invalidate all logical calculations: Once the war was unleashed.

If the conflict in eastern Ukraine’s energy-rich Donbas region escalates, Kyiv depends on direct and open support from NATO.

 But how would Turkey, with NATO’s second-largest army, react if the confrontation spilled over into the Black Sea?

Turkey remained relatively passive when the political crisis in Ukraine first erupted in late 2013. There was, however, an official condemnation of Russian action in Crimea in 2014.

“Now, despite Russian activity in Donbas (although Russia has no troops there, as well as arming local militias), Ankara’s relations with Moscow remain good.”

Even when Russia and Turkey supported different proxies in the conflicts in Syria, Libya, and Nagorno-Karabakh, the two countries were able to create a “reconciliation alliance” on the ground.

Russia and Turkey also continued to develop trade relations. “Turkey purchased the Russian S-400 missile system in 2019, and in 2020 Russia completed the construction of the Turk Stream pipeline, which allows Moscow to bypass Ukraine and send natural gas to southern Europe via Turkey.”

“At the same time, however, Ankara has been busy developing deeper economic, political, and military ties with Ukraine.”

 “Last October, the Ukrainian and Turkish defense ministers signed a memorandum of understanding outlining cooperation on joint shipbuilding projects for warships, drones, and turbines.”

“This year, on March 24, Ankara hosted meetings between officials from the Turkish foreign and defense ministries with their Ukrainian counterparts.”

Ukraine is set to buy Turkish Bayraktar drones this year, and there are plans for long-term commercial cooperation with its neighbor on the other side of the Black Sea, including joint production of the drones.

“Indications are that Ukraine is preparing to escalate its activities in Donbas, where Russian-backed forces effectively control coal production, and that Turkey is actively involved, which is why Ukrainian officials often refer to Turkey as a reliable strategic partner.”

Turkey wants the dominant power in the Black Sea region and Russia is the only real rival.

 “Turkey shares historical ties with Crimea, as well as religious and ethnic ties with the Crimean Tatars, a Turkish ethnic group that makes up an estimated 13 percent of the peninsula’s population.”

The Crimean Peninsula belonged to the Ottoman Empire from the fifteenth to the eighteenth century, and there are a large number of Tatars living in the diaspora in Turkey who still consider the peninsula part of the “Turkish world”, and would love nothing more than for Ankara to be a buffer against Russia.