Washington prepares for escalation of conflict in the Middle East with plans to deter the Houthis
US officials believe that the possibility of a wider conflict is increasing following a series of confrontations in Iraq, Lebanon, and Iran in the past few days
The US administration is preparing for a scenario of escalation in the region and an expansion of the war by making plans to respond to Houthi attacks, backed by Iran, in the Red Sea. This includes striking their targets in Yemen, an option previously presented by the military.
According to US officials with direct knowledge of the discussions, internal talks are underway regarding scenarios that could lead the United States into another war in the Middle East. At the same time, intelligence officials are working on ways to deter possible attacks on the United States by Iran-backed factions in Iraq and Syria. They are also working to identify the locations where the Houthis might direct their next strikes.
The United States has been urging Tehran behind the scenes for months to convince its proxies to reduce their attacks. However, officials say they have seen no signs that the groups have started to decrease their targeting, and they are concerned about an escalation of violence in the coming days.
The US Navy reported that a Houthi drone boat loaded with explosives exploded in the Red Sea on Thursday, causing no damage or injuries. This occurred while the Houthi group continued its attacks in defiance of international calls to cease.
Military officials also reported on Friday that a ship was hijacked late Thursday near the coast of Somalia, closely monitored by the Indian Navy, which sent a warship towards it. The hijacked ship, “MV Lila Norfolk,” flying the Liberian flag, has 15 Indian crew members, and contact has been made with the crew.
US officials see an increasing possibility of a wider conflict following a series of confrontations in Iraq, Lebanon, and Iran in the past few days. These developments have convinced some in the administration that the war in Gaza may officially escalate beyond the borders of the sector, a scenario that the United States has been trying to avoid for several months.
The developments pose risks not only to regional security but also to the reelection prospects of President Joe Biden. He took office with commitments to end wars and began his tenure with the chaotic withdrawal from Afghanistan, ending 20 years of conflict. Now, in his first term, he finds himself defending the West’s stance on Ukraine and supporting Israel’s retaliation against Hamas.
Even without US forces in any of the conflicts, voters may see 2024 as their opportunity to weigh in on the major foreign policy question of these elections: To what extent should America engage in foreign wars?
Biden pledged to support Ukraine “no matter how long it takes,” while staunchly backing Israel. Meanwhile, former President Donald Trump, Biden‘s likely Republican challenger, boasted that he could end the Russian invasion in just a few hours and argued that the United States should stay out of the fighting between Israel and Hamas.
According to the US newspaper, escalation could lead President Biden to deeper involvement in the Middle East as the 2024 election campaign intensifies, pushing his campaign to focus on domestic issues. A November poll by Quinnipiac University showed that 84% of Americans were either very concerned or somewhat concerned about the possibility of the United States being drawn into a conflict in the Middle East. With each passing month, more Americans fear that the Biden administration is providing too much financial support to Ukraine.
As the election campaign intensifies, the administration increasingly finds itself addressing tensions throughout the Middle East. Over the weekend, Houthi rebels targeted a commercial cargo ship, prompting US Navy helicopters to target and sink three of their boats. Tensions escalated in the region on Thursday after the Biden administration conducted a drone strike in Baghdad that killed the leader of an Iran-backed faction called “Abu Al-Taqwa” and at least one other militant.
A senior official in the US administration said that the President met with his National Security team on New Year’s morning to discuss the situation in the Red Sea and explore options to move forward. One result of this meeting was the issuance of a joint statement by the United States and dozens of its allies warning that the Houthis would face “consequences” if they continued to “threaten lives” and disrupt trade flows in the Red Sea.
Another senior US official emphasized that the administration’s concerns about a broader war in the region are not new. The United States has been concerned for weeks about the escalating war in Gaza, and there is no indication that the threats to US forces abroad have widened in the past few days.
However, there are other indications that the administration is concerned about the increasing threats in the wake of the attack in Iran on Wednesday. Officials across the administration, from the Pentagon to the State Department to intelligence agencies, are assessing how Iran or its proxies in the Middle East could directly target the United States or its allies in the region.
Officials say that such emergency planning is normal in cases of increasing tension in the Middle East. Still, the rush within the administration to prepare reports on possible attack points and potential US responses this week came as a result of orders from the highest levels in the administration due to concerns that violence in the region will continue to grow, and Washington will eventually be forced to intervene.
Particularly worrisome is the possibility of escalation in the Red Sea. Houthi attacks on merchant ships there last month prompted the United States to announce the start of a new international naval alliance to deter these attacks. Rear Admiral Brad Cooper, commander of the US Fifth Fleet, told reporters on Thursday that the alliance, now comprising more than 20 countries, has allowed about 1,500 merchant ships to pass safely through these waters since operations began on December 18th.
