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Ukraine is seeking to strengthen its alliance with Europe and explore alternatives for funding and supporting its defense capabilities amid the freeze in U.S. military aid.

How will the decision by U.S. President Donald Trump to halt military aid to Ukraine affect the ongoing war since February 2022?

Oleksii Melnick, an international security expert and former official at Ukraine’s Ministry of Defense, told CNN that U.S. military aid currently represents about 30% of Ukraine’s weapon and ammunition needs.

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The security expert pointed out in his analysis that the situation in Ukraine will worsen as Western supplies dwindle.

He added, “Considering the shortage of ammunition and weapons, even 1% is critical. Is 30% critical? Definitely.”

He continued, “What we’re hearing from various sources is that Ukraine will be able to endure this level or the same level of violence intensity for about six months.”

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On the other hand, Kateryna Stepanenko, an analyst at the Institute for the Study of War, a U.S.-based institute that monitors conflicts, believes that Trump‘s decision “will have significant consequences, but it’s unlikely that the Russians will achieve a breakthrough immediately or in the coming months.”

She stated, “The Ukrainians will be able to defend themselves, as we have seen them do in the past during previous difficulties with aid,” referencing last year when U.S. shipments slowed due to Congress halting the next aid package.

Military analyst at CNN and retired U.S. Air Force Colonel Cedric Leighton pointed out that some munitions are delivered within a short time frame, shipping them where they are urgently needed at any moment.

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“As a result, some impacts may be felt almost immediately on the front lines. Ukrainians will have to ration their use of certain munitions, which could cause problems for their efforts to hold places like Pokrovsk,” Leighton added.

He referred to Pokrovsk, an important logistics center that has been a primary target of Russian attacks in eastern Ukraine since the summer.

Despite expectations that the city could fall within weeks, Kyiv’s forces have managed to push Russian troops back, partly thanks to continuous U.S. military aid shipments.

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What Aid Has Been Suspended?

The U.S. had been supplying Ukraine with artillery shells, tanks, armored vehicles, howitzers, Patriot air defense batteries, missile systems, and long-range shells.

However, the suspension is not limited to just hardware. U.S. officials confirmed on Wednesday that the United States has also halted intelligence support and weapons shipments to Ukraine.

A senior U.S. military official stated that the U.S. has already reduced some intelligence-sharing, including fewer intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance flights that could affect offensive and defensive operations, including air defense, as Ukraine relies on U.S. intelligence for surveillance.

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In this context, Stepanenko emphasized that intelligence-sharing “is extremely important for Ukrainian forces” as it involves things like satellite imagery, which Ukrainian troops use in drone operations.

It is unclear whether the halt in intelligence sharing includes these resources.

Previously, the U.S. had suspended humanitarian aid to Ukraine as part of a broader suspension of USAID programs.

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Why Is Trump Doing This?

CNN reports that Trump is trying to pressure Kyiv into negotiating a peace agreement with Russia without committing to providing security guarantees for Ukraine.

Zelensky has tried to demonstrate that an agreement without guarantees could be disastrous for Ukraine, arguing that Putin has “violated” ceasefire agreements in the past.

On this point, Ukrainian President Zelensky has received near-global support from Kyiv’s Western allies. British Prime Minister Keir Starmer stated on Monday that security guarantees must be part of any peace deal.

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Melnick noted that Ukraine has spent the past few weeks trying to understand which of Trump‘s statements should be treated as political declarations and which are part of a strategy to appease the Russians and entice them into negotiations.

The announcement of the suspension of military aid by Trump caused shock and grief across Ukraine.

While Trump did not propose a specific peace plan, he suggested that Ukraine would have to make sacrifices regarding its territory.

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For many, this seems like surrender.

John Lough, Head of Foreign Policy at the New Eurasian Strategies Center, believes Zelensky cannot accept such a proposal.

He said, “I don’t really understand what Zelensky is supposed to tell the Americans. Am I supposed to give up our land and agree to whatever terms you discuss with the Russians?”

He added, “I mean, this is absolutely ridiculous. They can’t do that, and they won’t.”

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Can Other Ukrainian Allies Help Fill the Gap?

The U.S. is the largest single provider of military aid to Ukraine, but it is not the only one.

According to the Kiel Institute, which monitors aid to Ukraine, military assistance from Europe is comparable to that coming from the U.S., and in the short term, Europeans could intervene to help Kyiv fill the gap.

This has happened before, with European aid becoming more crucial in the first half of last year when U.S. shipments slowed.

At the same time, Ukraine has become more self-reliant since the war broke out in 2022.

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In this context, Stepanenko noted that Ukrainians “have significantly increased their production of drones, artillery, and their own armored vehicles. They have been doing this since 2023, in anticipation of possibly not receiving aid.”

On Tuesday, the European Union unveiled a plan to allow member states to borrow 150 billion euros ($158 billion) to boost their defense spending and “significantly increase military support to Kyiv.”

Some of Ukraine’s European allies are pushing for the confiscation of frozen Russian assets to fund defense aid. Currently, the revenues from these assets are only being used to support Ukraine’s defense.

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“The Harsh Reality”

But the painful reality— as described by CNN—is that even if Europe secures the necessary funds, it will take years for Europe’s underfunded defense sector to match the capability of the U.S. defense sector.

There are also some weapons systems that only the U.S. can provide, including Patriot defense systems capable of intercepting cruise missiles, hypersonic missiles, short-range ballistic missiles, and aircraft.

According to Stepanenko, “The U.S. holds the licenses for these systems and their missiles, which makes it difficult for European countries to replicate them.”

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While the Patriot systems play a critical role in Ukraine’s air defenses, protecting millions of civilians across the country, other Western systems may be effective against cruise missiles and drones, but the Patriots provide unparalleled protection against hypersonic missiles and advanced ballistic missiles.

Russia regularly uses these missiles, having increased domestic production and started purchasing more from North Korea.

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What Are Ukraine’s Options Now?

Ukraine’s best option, according to Stepanenko, is to focus on strengthening its alliance with Europe.

“Ukraine has already laid a very good foundation for this through the formation of various initiatives. For example, many European countries have formed initiatives for ammunition, drones, air defense, and I think this is the right time to expand those initiatives.”

She added, pointing to countries like South Korea, which has previously sold U.S. ammunition that was later given to Ukraine, “There is also an important discussion about the need to seize Russian frozen assets in Europe to help fund any arms purchases, not just from the U.S., but also globally.”

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If Zelensky were to seek advice, Kurt Volker, the former U.S. Ambassador to NATO and U.S. Special Representative for Ukraine, stated that he would encourage him to “sign the deal on natural resources as soon as possible, express regret over the way the Oval Office meeting went on Friday, and clarify that he is 100% committed to achieving peace.”

The deal was supposed to be signed when Trump met with Zelensky at the White House on Friday, but the meeting went off-track and ended prematurely when the Ukrainian leader was asked to leave.

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In a statement to CNN, Volker believed that “this would reconcile the U.S. and Ukraine in the future and serve the interests of both countries.”

On Tuesday, Zelensky expressed his readiness to sign the mineral deal “at any time and in whatever form is appropriate.”

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