Israeli or American Strike… How Is Iran Preparing for the Worst-Case Scenario?

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Amid shattered radar gaps and the looming presence of stealth aircraft, Iran is preparing for what it calls the worst-case scenario in the history of its nuclear program.

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Following a “historic setback” to its air defenses due to Israeli strikes in April and October 2024, Tehran has been racing to rebuild its defensive network around its “sensitive sites,” anticipating a potential collapse of nuclear talks — which could quickly translate into fiery flashes over Natanz and Fordow.

However, those strikes may come sooner than expected, with reports suggesting Israel may be preparing preemptive attacks on Iranian nuclear facilities. This comes amid heightened tensions with European nations following the latest report by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).

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How is Iran preparing?

According to the Financial Times, Iran is working to bolster its air defenses after several advanced surface-to-air missiles and radar systems — including Russian-made long-range S-300 units — were destroyed or damaged in Israeli airstrikes last year.

Western intelligence assessments and satellite imagery reviewed by defense analysts indicate that Iran has since redeployed several SAM launchers, including S-300s, near key nuclear sites such as Natanz and Fordow.

Some of these systems were even publicly displayed, including at Tehran’s “Army Day” parade last month.

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In February, the S-300 was also seen firing a surface-to-air missile during military exercises using a new Iranian-designed radar — likely because the original was disabled, according to Nicole Grajewski of the Carnegie Endowment in Washington.

“Iran clearly wants to counter the narrative that its advanced air defenses have been destroyed,” she said.

Iran’s defensive arsenal includes a mix of short-, medium-, and long-range SAMs, as well as anti-air drones.

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Alongside Russian systems like the Tor-M1, Iran’s inventory includes domestically developed SAMs like the long-range Bavar-373 and the mid-range Khordad-15 — a result of frustration over Russia’s slow deliveries and its refusal to sell more advanced systems like the S-400, says Fabian Hinz of the International Institute for Strategic Studies in the UK.

“This is part of Iran’s attempt to replicate the success of its ballistic missile program,” he adds.

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Can Israel succeed?

John Alterman, head of global security at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) in Washington, believes Israel faces challenges. “But is it beyond their capabilities? No. Israelis have been rehearsing for this very scenario for decades.”

Iran has as well. According to the Financial Times, suppressing Iranian air defenses before striking nuclear sites would take hours or even days, with fighter jets, cruise missiles, electronic warfare aircraft, and anti-radiation missiles all playing a role.

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The current state of Iran’s defenses

Robert Tullast from the UK’s Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) notes, “Israel has imposed near-complete air dominance over Iran. But such a strike would require waves of aircraft for several hours. Crew fatigue becomes a factor — the longer they stay over Iran, the greater the risk of error.”

Even if most of Iran’s radars are jammed or shut down, some systems might still function.

In 2018, for example, Syria downed an Israeli F-16 with a Soviet-era S-200 missile system.

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Yuri Lyamin, a Russian defense expert, highlights that Iran is now focused on mobile, modern air defenses that can relocate quickly and hide in shelters, making them harder to target.

Iran’s military chief, Mohammad Bagheri, recently declared that the country is ready to retaliate, citing significant improvement in air defense capabilities and a multi-fold increase in investment.

“Any violation of our airspace will bring great harm to our enemies,” he warned.

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US pressure and strike scenarios

While talks with Washington continue, former US President Donald Trump — who withdrew from the 2015 nuclear deal — has threatened military action if negotiations fail.

The US demands Iran halt uranium enrichment, which it says is crucial to preventing weaponization, while Tehran insists it must retain the right to enrich for civilian use.

In April, Washington deployed six B-2 bombers — the largest such deployment ever — to Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean, a possible launch base for attacks.

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Israel, which has proven it can strike Iranian air defenses, is lobbying the US for support and may act alone if it deems any new deal too weak.

In 2024, Israel targeted radars and missile systems using long-range ballistic missiles, well beyond the S-300’s 200 km range. Boosters from those missiles were found deep in the Iraqi desert.

Satellite images confirm some direct hits, including a radar truck near Isfahan. However, images from October suggest several S-300 sites were simply vacated, raising questions about whether they were destroyed or relocated.

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“There’s little conclusive evidence,” says Sam Lear of the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies. Still, Iran has clearly been affected and has responded by repositioning and diversifying launchers and radar systems.

The assault scenario

Attacking Iran’s heavily fortified underground sites — like Natanz, built into a mountain — would require massive firepower.

If the US were involved, B-2 bombers from Diego Garcia could deploy 30,000-pound GBU-57 bunker busters, according to research by the UK’s Royal United Services Institute.

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But if Israel acted alone, its options would be limited. It would likely use F-35 stealth jets with 2,000-pound BLU-109 bombs, or F-15s with 4,000-pound GBU-28s — both requiring repeated hits on the same location to penetrate hardened bunkers.

Such missions would require multiple sorties, likely involving air refueling, and could be vulnerable to Iranian SAMs or drones.

Since last summer, Israel has conducted at least nine strikes in Yemen from distances similar to those needed to hit Iran.

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