Intelligence reports refute Trump’s account on Iranian missiles

Sources familiar with U.S. intelligence reports have confirmed that Iran remains far from producing missiles capable of striking the United States.

Last Tuesday, in his State of the Union address, U.S. President Donald Trump stated that Tehran would soon possess missiles capable of threatening American territory, in what appeared to be an effort to justify a potential strike against Iran.

Three sources with knowledge of the intelligence assessments said the reports contain nothing to support Trump’s claim that Iran would soon have a missile capable of hitting the United States, suggesting that this assessment appears to be exaggerated.

Two of the sources explained that there have been no changes to the declassified 2025 assessment by the U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency, which indicates that Iran may need until 2035 to develop “an intercontinental ballistic missile suitable for military use” based on the space launch vehicles it currently possesses.

This is not the first time U.S. intelligence assessments have clashed with the president’s narrative.

In June, when the United States launched strikes on Iranian nuclear sites, Trump declared that Tehran’s nuclear capabilities had been completely destroyed. However, intelligence estimates at the time suggested that Iran might need only a matter of days to repair the damage to its facilities.

Washington is currently engaged in negotiations with Iran to reach an agreement on its nuclear program. The most recent round of talks, held Thursday in Geneva, was described as the most positive so far.

Israel is pressing the U.S. administration to ensure that any potential agreement with Iran also addresses its missile program.

Iranian missiles are capable of reaching Israel, which Tehran previously targeted during a 12-day war in June.