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Kenya’s announcement of its support for Morocco’s autonomy proposal as the sole realistic solution to the manufactured conflict marks a significant diplomatic shift both regionally and internationally, signaling increased isolation of the Polisario Front and its major regional backers.

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Until recently part of the Algeria–South Africa axis backing the separatist Sahara claim and providing political cover to the Polisario Front, Kenya’s move to support the Moroccan autonomy proposal under Moroccan sovereignty represents a major blow to the Polisario Front, Algeria, and South Africa. This deprives the separatist movement of one of its traditional African backers.

This development also intensifies Algeria’s isolation, considered the main and almost sole supporter of the Polisario’s hardline stance. With the decline of the Algeria–South Africa axis support, Algeria’s position becomes more solitary and less influential.

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This shift reflects a decline in the influence of the Algeria–South Africa axis in Africa, which sought to block Morocco’s efforts to resolve the manufactured conflict, in favor of a pragmatic approach gaining traction internationally and regionally.

A diplomatic victory for Morocco

Kenya’s stance joins a growing list of countries, including major powers such as the United States, Spain, Germany, and France, recognizing Morocco’s autonomy proposal as the only credible and serious solution.

This recognition strengthens the international legitimacy of Moroccan sovereignty over the Sahara and confirms that autonomy is the only viable political path under the UN’s aegis.

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Kenya’s position marks an important African breakthrough, given its political and economic weight in East Africa. Its recognition of Moroccan Sahara is a significant diplomatic advance for Morocco on the continent, showcasing the success of Moroccan diplomacy in convincing African states of its proposal’s seriousness and realism.

This change illustrates a trend among many African countries to adopt more realistic, pragmatic policies based on common interests and development, moving away from outdated ideological stances. Morocco builds relations with African countries on economic cooperation and joint development, likely influencing Kenya’s position.

• Switzerland Supports a Realistic and Acceptable Political Solution to the Moroccan Sahara Issue

• France opens up to investment in the Moroccan Sahara

This evolution suggests a diplomatic reconfiguration in Africa around the Sahara issue, with a growing number of states supporting Morocco’s position.

The Polisario Front’s isolation within the African Union is increasing, potentially paving the way for more pressure to revise its stance, or even attempts to expel the movement from the continent if enough countries back Morocco.

Kenya expressed intent to collaborate with like-minded countries to implement the autonomy plan, which could encourage others to join this momentum.

• Biden Proposes Diplomat Supportive of Moroccan Sahara as Ambassador to Algeria

• The broader opening towards Morocco brings Niger closer to an official recognition of the Moroccan Sahara

Nairobi confirms its support for exclusive UN supervision of the political process, consistent with Morocco’s position rejecting external intervention outside the UN framework. Growing international support gives new impetus to the political process toward a definitive resolution based on Morocco’s autonomy proposal, particularly with the expanding international consensus.

In short, Kenya’s recognition of Moroccan Sahara marks a decisive milestone, reinforcing Morocco’s position internationally and regionally, while increasing pressure on the Polisario Front and Algeria to adopt a realistic solution.

• Calls urging Britain to end its hesitation in recognizing the Moroccan Sahara

• Saudi Arabia consolidates its support for the Moroccan Sahara Internally and Externally 

Moroccan diplomacy, led by King Mohammed VI, has gradually dismantled regional and international support networks backing the Polisario Front, which portrayed itself as a liberation movement demanding Sahrawi self-determination.

Moroccan diplomacy revealed the reality of the Polisario as an armed militia involved in terrorist and criminal activities, posing a threat to regional security and stability, with Algeria providing safe refuge to these groups.

• The Non-Aligned Movement Triumphs for Realism as a Solution to End the Conflict in Moroccan Sahara

• Washington exposes Algeria’s falsification of its position on the Moroccan Sahara

The updated map of states supporting autonomy under Moroccan sovereignty or withdrawing recognition and relations from the Polisario shows 38 African countries now support Moroccan Sahara. This is the cumulative result of sustained efforts. To date, 22 African countries have opened diplomatic representations in the Kingdom’s southern provinces, reinforcing practical recognition.

All forecasts agree 2025 will be pivotal, with Morocco nearing a definitive resolution while anticipating the Polisario’s exit from the African Union and the progressive decline of Algeria and South Africa’s influence on the dossier.

• U.S. moves to expedite resolution of the fabricated conflict in the Moroccan Sahara

• Steadfast Gulf Position on the Moroccan Sahara 

Meanwhile, Algeria faces successive setbacks in the Sahara dossier and mounting economic pressures, forcing it to reconsider financial priorities and possibly reducing funding for the Polisario. Reports indicate a drop in Algeria’s foreign currency reserves, while annual Polisario support is estimated between $1 billion and $4 billion, a heavy burden perceived by many Algerians as futile and harmful to national interests.

Algeria may be reassessing its foreign policy, focusing on internal or regional issues and reducing its engagement in the Moroccan Sahara question.

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The oil-rich state faces growing international pressure to abandon its blockade of the conflict’s resolution and take a constructive role aligned with Morocco’s autonomy proposal.

Algeria’s diplomatic influence has waned in several international forums, particularly regarding the Sahara, with diminishing international support for the Polisario and failure of the Algerian lobby in Washington.

Some analyses suggest Algeria might shift support to other causes, like backing separatism in the Rif, in reaction to diplomatic defeats related to the Moroccan Sahara, but this strategy appears to have little traction.

• UN envoy for Moroccan Sahara begins visit to Rabat

• King Mohammed VI thanks Gulf Leaders for Moroccan Sahara Solidarity

South Africa’s waning support for the separatist Polisario project is linked to deteriorating relations with Algeria, with internal debates and criticism of the ANC’s support for the separatist front, some seeing it as counterproductive to Pretoria’s peace and stability goals in Africa.

Reports show a decline in African states recognizing the Polisario, with several withdrawing or freezing recognition. This impacts South Africa’s leadership ambitions on the continent. Frustration exists among some officials over the Saharan issue, due to the erosion of support for the self-proclaimed “Sahrawi Arab Democratic Republic” and growing backing for Moroccan sovereignty.

• Bourita praised Muscat’s support for Morocco’s sovereignty about Moroccan Sahara

• A top US envoy visited Moroccan Sahara

The diminishing political and financial support from the Polisario’s two major allies will weaken its negotiation position internationally, making it harder to finance operations and meet fighters’ needs while increasing diplomatic isolation regionally and globally. This could shift regional power balances and open new prospects for a political solution.

The Polisario Front may be compelled to accept realistic solutions, like autonomy, facing dwindling support. Overall, these developments indicate the movement is in a difficult phase, likely pushing it to reconsider its strategy amid regional, international changes, and declining ally support.

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• The Kingdom of Holland joins list of countries supporting Moroccan autonomy initiative in Sahara