Joseph Aoun Closer to the Presidency of Lebanon 

Lebanon still suffers from political stagnation and a significant presidential vacuum, as legislators continue to fail in electing a new president. None of the candidates have received sufficient support to secure the required two-thirds majority for victory in the presidential race.

Moreover, the political stagnation might pave the way for prolonged negotiations that could eventually lead to a resolution by a third party.

Shuffling the Deck

In the same context, informed sources revealed their expectations regarding the upcoming phase in light of the ongoing presidential vacancy. They indicated that the next phase would shuffle the deck in the Lebanese presidential election.

This comes as the name of the Lebanese Armed Forces Commander, General Joseph Aoun, is expected to gain regional and international endorsements as a candidate. However, this doesn’t necessarily mean a decline in the chances of former MP Suleiman Frangieh, the leader of the Marada Movement, even though he hasn’t officially announced his candidacy.

According to sources, the advancement of General Aoun’s candidacy does not indicate that the opposition has abandoned its support for Deputy Michel Moawad. The opposition will attempt to compensate for this setback by expanding his supporters’ base in the upcoming election session next Thursday, even though indicators suggest that the session will end like its predecessors.

Sources anticipate a shuffling of the deck, possibly in the early months of the new year.

Support for the Third Man Solution

Media reports have stated that the leader of the Free Patriotic Movement, Gebran Bassil, discussed the Lebanese presidency file with foreign officials, and that he was encouraged by the United States to nominate General Joseph Aoun during their meeting.

The report mentioned that anti-Frangieh deputies are competing to support the third man solution, which could withdraw the nominations of competing presidential candidates, namely Marada Movement leader Suleiman Frangieh and former Minister of Finance Jihad Azour.

Diplomatic sources have stated that the special envoy of French President Emmanuel Macron to Lebanon will also propose the election of the army commander.

Presidential Vacuum Deepens Lebanon’s Crises

The severity of the economic collapse increases as the presidential vacuum persists, affecting all sectors, especially since the current government, which is temporary and its term has ended, is limited in its ability to make appointments to key vacant positions. This includes the position of the central bank governor, which has been vacant since the end of July last year. This vacancy has had negative effects on the economic reform plan.

According to updated figures from the World Bank on food security, Lebanon recorded the highest nominal inflation rate in food prices worldwide, reaching 350% for the period between April 2022 and April 2023. Furthermore, a report prepared by the World Food Programme and the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization added Lebanon to the list of countries with hotspots of hunger points in 2023. This situation could lead to a severe deterioration in food security levels.