No Ceasefire in Gaza until De-escalation between Iran and Israel

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U.S. officials have stated that a ceasefire agreement in Gaza will not be reached if both sides maintain their current conditions. A senior Israeli official also said there will be no significant progress or breakthrough in hostage deal negotiations until Israel finishes its retaliation against Iran, and the potential repercussions that may follow. It is unlikely that the successors of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar, who was killed in clashes with Israeli forces, will push for an agreement until they are certain a regional war will not erupt.

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Public mediators, including the United States, have said that the elimination of Sinwar could provide an opportunity for positive change and facilitate an agreement. However, no agreement will be reached until the situation between Israel and Iran is resolved.

According to a report published by the Hebrew Ynet site, future measures could result in a broader regional arrangement, also taking into account the issue of hostages. Mossad director David Barnea is leading a proposal calling for a ceasefire and a political solution on the northern border, including the hostage issue.

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President Joe Biden held a meeting last weekend on the issue of Israeli prisoners in Gaza and efforts to renew the agreement after the death of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar. The meeting was attended by U.S. officials, including National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan, CIA Director William Burns, Biden‘s Middle East envoy Brett McGurk, and others.

McGurk spoke with the families of the American-Israeli hostages after the meeting and conveyed the administration’s strong determination to achieve a “breakthrough” and make progress in negotiations for a hostage release agreement.

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The U.S. sees the elimination of Hamas‘ leader as a golden opportunity to renew ceasefire talks, and the Biden administration is committed to doing everything possible in this regard, despite the political timeline of the November presidential elections.

Washington and Israel are in talks with mediators from Egypt and Qatar, attempting to determine whether negotiations with Hamas for a ceasefire agreement can continue at this time.

Israel has expressed serious concerns that Hamas may retaliate against the hostages due to Sinwar‘s death and has sent strong warnings to the Palestinian movement, cautioning them not to harm the prisoners.

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However, despite the U.S.’s determination, it seems that no significant development will occur until Hamas clarifies its plans regarding Sinwar‘s successor. One option being considered is for a committee of senior officials, rather than a single individual, to take over, which could make negotiations easier.

Attention is currently focused on Hamas‘ leadership abroad, particularly in Qatar and Turkey. Doha plays a key role in indirect negotiations aimed at achieving a ceasefire and has influence over those residing in its territory, which could make progress in future negotiations possible.

Among the names suggested as Sinwar‘s successor is Khaled Meshaal, who is close to Qatar and has reservations about Iran’s role.

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In recent months, Washington and Tel Aviv have accused Doha of not doing enough to secure the release of Israeli hostages held by Hamas. Qatar has condemned these accusations and threatened to withdraw from its mediating role.

However, following recent developments after Sinwar‘s death, Qatari diplomacy may resume its role with fewer challenges if the balance of leadership tips in favor of Hamas leaders abroad.

On the ground, the Israeli army announced Sunday evening the death of a “brigade commander” with the rank of colonel, marking the first such announcement since the start of the ground battles in Gaza.

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The army stated, “Colonel Ihsan Daqseh (41 years old), commander of the 401st Brigade, was killed in one of the ongoing battles in northern Gaza.” This is the first brigade commander with the rank of colonel to be killed in Gaza battles. The private newspaper Yediot Ahronot reported that Colonel Daqseh was killed by the explosion of a tank in the Jabalia battles in northern Gaza.

On Sunday, several Palestinians were killed or injured in Israeli shelling that targeted a school and a medical clinic sheltering displaced people in the Jabalia refugee camp in northern Gaza.

Eyewitnesses reported that the bombing targeted the Abu Hussein School and the Al-Fakhura Clinic, run by UNRWA, causing deaths and injuries among Palestinians, though the exact number has not been specified.

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