3 Defensive Solutions for Humanity Against an Asteroid Threatening Earth
As the slim possibility of a massive asteroid colliding with Earth within the next eight years looms, experts affirm that humanity is prepared to defend itself against such a threat.
NASA has indicated that the likelihood of the recently discovered asteroid impacting Earth on December 22, 2032, has risen to 3.1%, the highest probability ever predicted for an asteroid of this size.
However, “no need to panic,” says Richard Moissl, head of the Planetary Defense Office at the European Space Agency. According to him, this probability could significantly decrease as more data about the asteroid’s trajectory is gathered. And even if the likelihood were to unexpectedly rise to 100%, he adds, “we are not powerless.”
In a NASA report, Moissl outlined several ways humanity could defend the planet against the asteroid “2024 YR4”, including:
1- Crashing a spacecraft into the asteroid
The only planetary defense strategy that has been tested so far is intentionally crashing a spacecraft into an asteroid. In 2022, NASA conducted the DART experiment (Double Asteroid Redirection Test), where a spacecraft deliberately collided with the asteroid Dimorphos, successfully altering its orbit.
Bruce Betts, chief scientist at the Planetary Society, believes the same approach could be used for 2024 YR4 by sending multiple spacecraft to shift its trajectory.
However, Moissl warns against excessive force, explaining that destroying part of the asteroid could send debris hurtling toward Earth, potentially changing the expected impact location.
2- Alternative methods to alter its trajectory
The “gravity tractor” concept involves sending a large spacecraft near the asteroid to use its gravitational pull to slowly drag it away from Earth.
Another technique involves using ion beams to gradually push the asteroid in a different direction.
Some scientists have even proposed spraying one side of the asteroid with white paint, increasing its reflectivity and subtly shifting its orbit over time due to solar radiation pressure.
3- The nuclear option
One last-resort measure for large asteroids is detonating a nuclear bomb nearby. This method relies on a nuclear explosion adjacent to the asteroid, causing surface vaporization that could push it off its collision course with Earth.
However, this approach carries significant risks, including scattering unpredictable fragments that could still end up falling to Earth. Thus, it remains an absolute last option, reserved for massive asteroids.
For now, scientists continue to monitor asteroid 2024 YR4, collecting precise data to assess the real risk of impact and develop defensive plans if necessary.
