Iran still retains most of its missile arsenal
A report by The New York Times highlights a disagreement within U.S. intelligence over the extent of the damage inflicted on Iran’s missile capabilities.
The American newspaper The New York Times revealed the existence of intelligence assessments indicating that Iran still retains a large portion of its missile capabilities, despite repeated statements by the administration of President Donald Trump asserting that the Iranian military had suffered “total destruction” during the recent war.
According to the documents cited in the report, Iran still holds around 70 percent of its missile stockpile from before the outbreak of the war with the United States and Israel, while continuing to operate mobile launch platforms, which are a key element of Iran’s deterrence tactics due to the difficulty of targeting and tracking them.
Intelligence estimates also showed that roughly 90 percent of underground missile storage and launch facilities across the country have become “partially or fully operational,” contradicting the official narrative promoted by the U.S. administration regarding the scale of Iranian military losses.
Based on confidential intelligence documents from last May, the Iranian military has been able to restore access to 30 out of 33 missile bases located around the Strait of Hormuz, reflecting Tehran’s ability to reactivate its core military infrastructure within a relatively short period after the strikes it endured.
In the first White House response to the report, Deputy Press Secretary Olivia Wells reaffirmed the administration’s position, stating that the Iranian military had been “completely crushed,” and criticized reports suggesting that Tehran had restored its military capabilities.
Wells said that any claim about the restructuring of the Iranian military or the restoration of its readiness was “either self-deception or an echo of the rhetoric of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards,” underscoring the Trump administration’s adherence to its official narrative despite increasing intelligence and media reports.
For his part, the U.S. president escalated his rhetoric against American media outlets that reported on the continued strength of the Iranian military, writing in a post on the platform Truth Social that suggesting the Iranian military remains in good shape “borderlines on treason,” reflecting the sensitivity of the issue within the administration amid ongoing debate over the war’s outcomes.
The United States and Israel had launched large-scale military operations against Iran on February 28, to which Tehran responded with attacks on Israel and what it described as “American sites and interests” in several countries in the region.
On April 8, Washington and Tehran announced a temporary truce mediated by Pakistan, followed by a round of talks in Islamabad on April 11, but the negotiations did not lead to a comprehensive agreement ending the war.
As the diplomatic track stalled, the United States increased pressure on Iran by imposing a naval blockade on Iranian ports, including those overlooking the Strait of Hormuz, prompting Tehran to respond with countermeasures restricting navigation in the strait and requiring prior coordination with Iranian authorities.
This dispute comes amid growing international concern over a possible return to military escalation in the Gulf, particularly regarding the security of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most strategic corridors for oil and energy transport.
Informed sources had previously revealed that recent U.S. intelligence assessments indicated that the damage to Iran’s nuclear program remained limited despite strikes on sensitive facilities during the recent confrontation between the United States and Iran.
According to these estimates, the timeline Tehran would need to produce a nuclear weapon has not fundamentally changed compared to assessments made last summer, when intelligence agencies indicated that U.S. and Israeli military operations had delayed the progress of Iran’s nuclear program by only about one year.
The data shows that the overall picture of Iran’s nuclear program remained relatively stable even nearly two months after the outbreak of the U.S.-led war, one of whose main objectives was to prevent Iran from acquiring military nuclear capabilities. Although most military operations focused on conventional targets, Israel carried out strikes on major nuclear facilities in an attempt to weaken the technical infrastructure of the Iranian program.
The sources confirmed that maintaining the same timeline reflects the limited military impact on Iran’s nuclear project, noting that any fundamental change would require the destruction or removal of the stockpile of highly enriched uranium, which represents the central element in the process of building a nuclear weapon. Without addressing this stockpile, Iran’s ability to resume its nuclear activities remains intact within a relatively short timeframe.
