Arab Voter Surge Shakes Israeli Election as Early Results Defy Polls
Vote counting is continuing after polls closed in the election for Israel’s 26th Knesset. Early results are producing surprises compared with pre-election polling and exit poll projections.
The Central Elections Committee announced turnout of 77.7% of eligible voters, an increase of 7.1 percentage points over the previous election. A total of 5.69 million people cast their ballots, marking the highest turnout since 1999.
Participation among Arab citizens of Israel reached a record 80%. That mobilisation could secure Arab parties at least 15 seats, matching their strongest-ever parliamentary showing, achieved in the 2020 election.
Results unsettle both camps
According to Israel’s Channel 12, both sides have been stunned by the preliminary results. Benjamin Netanyahu has suffered a significant setback, with his bloc projected to lose between 10 and 12 seats compared with the 2022 election. He has blamed Ofer Winter, leader of the “People of Israel” party, who faces accusations of wasting right-wing votes by running without securing enough support to cross the electoral threshold.
The change bloc has also been surprised by the results, which place the Yashar party second behind Likud, contrary to pre-election polling. Channel 12 reported that the opposition bloc as a whole had also secured fewer seats than the Israeli right-wing bloc.
As things stand, the results would not enable Gadi Eisenkot to form a stable government. He would need the backing of both Arab lists to reach the 61 seats required for a majority and secure parliamentary approval for his government.
Potential paths to a government
According to the Israeli newspaper Yedioth Ahronoth, sources close to US President Donald Trump have begun discussions with Israeli officials to assess the results, the prospects for a national unity government and the significance of being the largest party in forming the next administration.
“The Americans do not want to see another far-right government led by Ben-Gvir and would prefer a national unity government or a stable government,” the newspaper reported.
Against that backdrop, the newspaper’s political analyst Itamar Eichner has not ruled out an attempt by Netanyahu to push for an emergency government with Eisenkot if he cannot assemble a right-wing coalition.
Accepting such an arrangement, however, could cause Eisenkot to hasten the fragmentation of the opposition camp. Netanyahu could also seek a separate agreement with Naftali Bennett, leader of the “Together” party, whose support alone might be enough to secure a majority for a new right-wing government.
The preliminary results give Netanyahu a political advantage, with Likud emerging as the largest party in the Knesset. He is therefore expected to insist that he should receive the mandate to form the next government. Israel’s president, however, generally assigns that task to the candidate backed by the largest number of lawmakers through the recommendations of the parties represented in parliament.
A Netanyahu-led right-wing government
With more than half the ballots counted, Netanyahu’s bloc is projected to win around 55 seats, compared with 49 for Eisenkot’s bloc and 16 for the Arab parties. This would leave Netanyahu closer to the 61-seat threshold needed to establish a stable government.
Under this scenario, Netanyahu would seek to retain his coalition’s current composition while persuading one or more opposition parties holding at least six seats to join. He would also face the challenge of accommodating his existing allies’ demands.
Although this path would involve lengthy and difficult negotiations, it could succeed if Netanyahu manages to reconcile his current partners’ conditions with the demands of the party he seeks to bring into the coalition.
An Eisenkot government with Arab backing
Even before any agreement is reached, Eisenkot is likely to receive the Arab parties’ endorsement during the president’s consultations on choosing a candidate to form the government. If he then seeks to assemble a majority, an alliance with those parties could become unavoidable.
Eisenkot and his partners have made their opposition to such an alliance clear. Nevertheless, they may have to reconsider if they want to establish a government bringing together the parties opposed to Netanyahu, regardless of their political orientations and backgrounds.
The need to secure support from both Arab lists further complicates Eisenkot’s calculations. Backing from the United Arab List, led by Mansour Abbas and regarded as more pragmatic than the Joint List, would not be enough on its own to reach the required 61 seats.
The possibility of another election
Another election remains a possibility if neither bloc can form the next government.
Once the final results are announced next Wednesday, Israeli President Isaac Herzog will begin consultations with party representatives. Within seven days of that announcement, he will assign a Knesset member the task of forming a government.
The designated candidate will have 28 days to complete the process, with the president able to grant an extension of up to 14 days. If the first candidate fails, the president may transfer the mandate to another Knesset member within three days. That candidate will have 28 days, with no option for an extension.
If the second attempt also fails, a 21-day period will begin during which 61 Knesset members may submit a written request asking the president to appoint another lawmaker who has agreed to undertake the task. The president must make that appointment within two days, and the candidate will then have 14 days to form a government.
If no government is ultimately formed, another election will be held within 90 days.
