Why Does Europe Fear the Aftermath of the US Midterm Elections?
Congress has few tools to constrain the president’s foreign policy powers, leaving Donald Trump considerable room to pursue his agenda abroad.
If Democrats achieve the expected results in Tuesday’s US midterm elections, victory flags could be flying across Europe.
But those preparing to wave them might want to consider what happens the following morning.
Why Does Congress Have Limited Influence over Foreign Policy?
A Democratic majority in Congress is unlikely to bring Europe immediate relief. Even if Trump faces constraints at home, he will remain free to focus on foreign policy and trade, according to the US publication Politico.
The US executive faces relatively few congressional checks in these areas, increasing the risk of fresh disputes and tougher demands on Europe.
“It would be a mistake for Europeans to assume that transatlantic relations will become warmer,” said Wolfgang Ischinger, the veteran German diplomat and former chairman of the Munich Security Conference.
“My expectation is precisely the opposite,” he added.
Could Celebrating a Democratic Victory Be Politically Counterproductive?
A recent EU-wide opinion poll found that 58% of respondents supported the Democrats, compared with just 18% who backed Donald Trump’s Republicans.
But while polls suggest that the US president’s European critics may get their wish, Ischinger advises them to avoid triumphalism.
“There will be voices here in Europe, including important ones, that will want to celebrate and congratulate the Democrats. But I think that would be counterproductive,” he told Politico.
“I would advise my European friends to exercise restraint and avoid giving the White House any excuse to become angry with Europe—any angrier than it already is,” he added with a laugh.
Others doubt that remaining silent would make any difference. Among them is Nathalie Tocci, a former adviser to the EU’s high representative for foreign affairs.
“Frankly, I don’t think Trump really needs any reasons or excuses to criticise Europe,” she said.
She noted that it would be difficult not to celebrate a Democratic victory, should it happen, given the links between Trump’s MAGA movement and Europe’s populist politicians.
Any setback for Trump lifts the spirits of European liberals and centrists. They have cited the electoral defeats of Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán and Aleksandar Vučić, identified in the article as Serbia’s prime minister, as evidence that populism has peaked, or at least reached a plateau.
According to Politico, however, that conclusion may be premature. Marine Le Pen’s polling strength in France and recent gains by Alternative for Germany suggest that populist politics remains a potent force.
Nevertheless, Tocci said that any defeat for Trump’s “Make America Great Again” movement would provide a morale boost for liberals and centrists.
What Would the Consequences Be for Europe?
Would a Democratic victory deliver any short-term benefit to the European Union? “Not much,” Ischinger said.
“A Democratic takeover of Congress would have little practical impact on Europe and could even make matters worse,” he added.
“If Donald Trump finds himself embroiled in congressional investigations and impeachment proceedings, and constrained domestically by a hostile Congress, he will inevitably turn to the areas where Congress is weak: foreign and trade policy.”
“We should prepare not for more harmonious transatlantic relations, but for greater friction and even more demands from Trump on Europe,” he continued.
Kurt Volker, the last US ambassador to NATO under President George W. Bush, shares that assessment.
“Don’t expect any major change from the Trump administration. Congress will investigate everything. They will investigate Trump, his family and the family businesses, as well as Steve Witkoff, Jared Kushner, Elon Musk, Pete Hegseth and Kash Patel at the FBI. Trump will fight all of this to the end, and it will be a huge spectacle,” he warned.
“Yes, the Democrats will be more supportive of Ukraine and NATO, but they cannot force Trump to take particular actions,” he added.
