A Puppet in the Hands of the Revolutionary Guards: How Has the Role of Iran’s Supreme Leader Changed?
The death of Iran’s former Supreme Leader during the first days of the war granted the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) additional room to expand its influence over decision-making, significantly diminishing the authority of his successor.
Before his death, Iran’s former Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, represented the red line that limited the Revolutionary Guards’ attempts to dominate all major state decisions, as he personally held the reins of power.
Following his death, his successor—even though he is his son—was unable to acquire the same level of authority. This allowed the Revolutionary Guards to fill the vacuum previously occupied by the father and consequently strengthen their control over the state’s sovereign decision-making process across various sectors.
The new Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, was not a figure fully accepted by the Revolutionary Guards despite his connections with them. Under normal circumstances, his appointment might have represented a new obstacle to the more hardline factions within the organization.
Against this backdrop, the powers of the Supreme Leader gradually diminished amid accelerating developments and mounting pressures. As a result, Mojtaba now finds himself, according to his critics, a “puppet” in the hands of the Revolutionary Guards, unable to penetrate the thick wall surrounding a narrow decision-making circle from which he is largely excluded.
A Greater Role
During a briefing before the U.S. Senate Foreign Relations Committee, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio stated on Tuesday that he believes Mojtaba Khamenei, who reportedly survived the American-Israeli strikes, is alive and playing an increasingly significant role in governing the country and making decisions, despite not appearing publicly since assuming power.
Rubio said: “I believe there are indications that he is participating more actively, at some level, in leading the country.”
Mojtaba, 56, succeeded his father, Ali Khamenei, who was killed during the first days of the war on February 28.
Rubio’s testimony came amid a stalemate in negotiations aimed at ending the war, which has contributed to a global energy crisis.
Rubio expressed hope for reaching an agreement with Iran while stressing that Tehran must significantly reduce its nuclear program if it wishes to secure relief from international sanctions.
Limited Authority
Ali Atef, an Egyptian researcher specializing in Iranian affairs, believes that developments within Iran and the evolution of its political system clearly indicate that the Revolutionary Guards are “the primary force controlling decision-making in Iran, not Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei.”
He explained that “the role of Iran’s current Supreme Leader has declined following the death of his father, Ali Khamenei, during the American-Israeli war.”
He added that “although the current Supreme Leader has remained out of public view for fear of being killed like his father, even if he were to reappear, he would not possess the same capabilities and powers that his father, former Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, enjoyed.”
Regarding the reasons behind this weakness, Atef argues that Mojtaba was not among the founders of the current political system, while the Revolutionary Guards had already expanded their influence over virtually all of Iran’s resources and institutions during the final years of Ali Khamenei’s rule.
Furthermore, according to the researcher, “the Revolutionary Guards view themselves as the true fighters in this war and believe that Mojtaba Khamenei has played no clear role in it so far. Consequently, they will claim domestically that they were the ones who saved the regime in Tehran from collapse.”
