Turkey…After the recognition of the Armenian genocide
The U.S.-Turkey relationship undoubtedly has a long history of complications, with no golden age to point out. However, even by these standards, recent years have been very bad. an accumulated series of crises, a dysfunctional relationship framework, and varying perceptions of threats plaguing relationships.
United States recognition
“Today, this relationship has been further complicated and exacerbated by U.S. recognition of the Armenian genocide, which has angered Ankara and is expected to further complicate relations between the two sides.”
Before that, five crises had tested US-Turkish relations in recent years and now dominate the Biden administration’s agenda :
Turkey’s purchase of Russian-made S-400 missile systems and subsequent U.S. sanctions on Turkey and the Syrian Kurds, the Eastern Mediterranean Crisis , the lawsuit against the state-owned Gulf Bank for U.S. sanctions on Iran, and Biden’s views on the decline of democracy and human rights in Turkey.
Despite this long list of differences, former President Trump protected Turkey from many possible punitive measures. In this regard, his departure is ominous for Ankara.
At a hearing on January 19, Secretary of State Antony Blinken referred to Turkey as “our alleged strategic partner” in response to a question about Turkey’s purchase of S-400 systems ; This is a sign of the new administration’s mood toward Turkey. Likewise, in nearly all public opinion polls in Turkey, the United States tops the list of countries that people perceive as threatening Turkey’s national security.
Despite recent positive messages from Ankara, the crisis in Turkey’s relations with the wider West is set to worsen. “This will be evident in the divergent readings of international affairs, Turkey’s attempt to reduce its dependence on the West, and the recent decision to recognize the Armenian genocide only added fuel to the fire and caused Turkish indignation.”
Turkey-Europe relations
Unlike Turkey’s relations with Europe, the US-Turkey relationship is essentially a one-sided issue : A security partnership established in the context of the Cold War. “At present, however, geopolitical detachment and differing threat perceptions have become the dominant feature of U.S.-Turkish relations, and as the long-standing dispute between Turkey and the U.S. Central Command over the Syria crisis illustrates, military relations have become increasingly tense.”
“One key issue is Turkey’s purchase of Russian S-400 air defense systems, which according to many in the West illustrate Turkey’s rearrangement away from NATO and the United States in defense procurement and geopolitical orientation.”
“For Turkey, these missiles are not motivated solely by defensive considerations – they cannot be said to be in the first place.” It is also geopolitical. “The deal strengthened Turkish-Russian relations, particularly in Syria, after their rapprochement in 2016 after Turkey shot down a Russian jet in 2015.”
“This development is deeply concerning for Washington, which fears that Turkey’s purchase will also pave the way for other partners, such as India, to do the same.”
Washington and Ankara
The way Washington and Ankara read international affairs varies. At a time when the United States considers China to be a consistent competitor, and with relations with Russia becoming more unstable, Turkey’s ruling regime believes that the international order today is not as Western-centric as it was before (if not post-Western), so Turkey should pursue their own interest by creating a more diverse geopolitical balance. Turkey’s reading of international affairs may be seen as unnatural in Washington, but for the ruling coalition in Ankara, it is seen as adapting to the new normal in world politics. The Turkish government’s reading of international affairs itself is unlikely to change during the Biden administration.
“For the Biden administration – which emphasizes strengthening alliances, institutions, and a liberal international order – the reset seems to mean that Turkey should reverse its relations with Russia and China, particularly by abandoning S-400 systems and returning to NATO and the West.”
Erdoğan Government
“On the other hand, for the Erdoğan government, Erdogan means that the United States must deal with the new geopolitical reality in Turkey’s neighborhood, including Turkey’s role in it, and broader changes in international affairs.”
This would mean that Ankara would not change its policies toward Russia and China and its actions on the Mediterranean in any way.
