What would happen if the North Korean leader died?
The issue of the health status of North Korean leader Kim Jong-un is of great concern to analysts of political and security developments on the Korean Peninsula.
Any news about Jong Un’s health is more than just news in tabloid journalism, where it gets a lot of attention, because he is the leader of a country with nuclear weapons, any instability in which could lead to a major security challenge.
Open speculation
Eli Fahrman, a researcher specializing in Korean studies at the US National Internet Center, said that this naturally leads to speculation about what might happen if Kim Jong-un died suddenly.
It is difficult to have any firm and credible prediction of what might happen in such a scenario, given the significant lack of information.
However, there are some relatively certain things that could at least help to shape an analysis of this issue.
Foremost among these, Fuhrman said, is the hereditary family rule of the North Korean leadership, with three successive generations of family leading the way, and the continuation of this approach is almost certainly the blueprint for the future.
Along these lines, it is almost certain that another member of the Kim family will be chosen to lead the country in the absence of its current ruler.
With a limited number of candidates to choose one, Kim Jong-un has already demoted his family members since coming to power in 2011, purging his uncle, Jang Song-thaek, in 2013, and ordering the assassination of his half-brother, Kim Jong-nam, in 2017.
The North’s leader has a surviving brother – the eldest, Kim Jong-Il, and is unlikely to emerge as a candidate for the succession, as Father Kim Jong-Il has overtaken him, and reportedly has shown no desire to lead or display the personal traits that perhaps no one in a leader of such a country would expect.
Kim Jong-un is believed to have at least three sons from his wife, Ri Sul Joo, the eldest of whom is a 10-year-old male, with no further information about the family.
The secrecy surrounding Kim’s sons is not unusual, but it is likely at least several years before Kim Jong-un’s eldest son assumes any kind of public role, making him an unlikely candidate for succession in the near future, even if he is likely to be the long-term heir, Fohrman explained.
The sister is present
Accordingly, only Kim Jong-un’s sister, Kim Jong-un, has in recent years played a highly visible role within the North Korean leadership.
“Much of this role has been centered on foreign affairs, involving clear, high-level diplomatic efforts and overly broad activities.”
Although Kim Jong-un’s career has seen ups and downs, including her recent downgrading in the KWP’s political bureau, she remains a highly influential figure in North Korean politics because of her ties to and proximity to Kim Jong-un.
North Korea remains a very male society, and yet it is not clear how Kim Jong-un will be received if she takes over.
However, Yu Jong may still be, from the perspective of the nature of hereditary family rule, the closest candidate to her brother’s succession.
However, another possibility of something like “supervision” will remain in place until a time when Kim Jong-un’s son is ready to take over running the country.
It was recently revealed that one of the outcomes of the eighth congress of the North Korean Workers’ Party, held last January, was the creation of a new post of “first secretary” that would effectively reach a second rank within the North Korean system.
Whatever happens in the eventual sudden death of Kim Jong-un, it will undoubtedly be a period of great tension and concern, as North Korea, and the rest of the world, make an assessment of the situation, Fahrman concluded.
