Poland’s submarine deal: a potential Swedish setback as France watches closely

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The deal to supply Poland with three modern submarines, initially won by a Swedish company, may be reconsidered, potentially reopening the door for France and its military naval industry group to re-enter the competition.

The French newspaper La Presse de la Manche notes that in the world of arms contracts, nothing is ever truly final, even after agreements are signed, as this market is frequently subject to reversals.

The paper recalls that the French naval industry company had previously faced a similar situation in Australia, where it lost a major contract to the trilateral alliance AUKUS comprising Australia, the United States, and the United Kingdom.

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A fragile Swedish victory

In November 2025, a Swedish company won the contract to provide Poland with three modern submarines to strengthen its naval fleet, outperforming companies from Spain, South Korea, Germany, Italy, and France.

According to the newspaper, this victory may not be final, as signs indicate disagreements between the two sides.

Dispute over armament

According to the French daily, the main points of disagreement revolve around the submarines’ armament, particularly the issue of equipping them with cruise missiles capable of striking land targets.

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Polish military authorities have not yet confirmed the adoption of this option, raising questions about the suitability of the Swedish offer.

During a recent meeting of the parliamentary defense committee, the Deputy Minister of Defense stated that his country is seeking the best possible terms, indicating that the government may consider alternative offers if the current one proves unsatisfactory.

Competition returns: France keeps watch

These developments open the possibility of relaunching the tender, allowing companies that were eliminated at the end of 2025 to re-enter the race.

Observers believe that all options are now on the table amid this uncertainty.

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For its part, the French naval industry group is closely monitoring the file, having previously expressed confidence in the technical and commercial superiority of its offer, while officially accepting the Polish decision at the time.

In this context, the French president’s visit to a northern Polish city and his meeting with the Polish prime minister could provide renewed momentum to French efforts to resubmit proposals, in an attempt to seize the opportunity and regain a place in the competition.

In light of these developments, the fate of the deal remains uncertain, with the possibility of changes that could reshape the competitive landscape in this strategic matter.

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