Will the Gaza War End in 2025?

31st December 2024

3 minutes read

The answer to this question depends on whom you ask.

The people of Gaza and their supporters worldwide want the war to end immediately. However, in Israel’s right-wing government, some desire the conflict to last indefinitely.

Ironically, while the Israeli right relies on the election of Donald Trump as U.S. president to perpetuate the war, Palestinians and the rest of the world hope that Trump’s inauguration on January 20 will mark the beginning of the end of this conflict.

The war in Gaza is now the longest in Israel’s history, a country whose military doctrine historically favored short wars.

What started on October 7, 2023, as a conflict expected to last a few months, has defied all predictions, extending for over a year and continuing into 2025.

After numerous dashed hopes throughout 2024 for a ceasefire agreement, optimistic expectations at the year’s end suggested a phased implementation. However, these hopes quickly vanished.

Now, parties pin their hopes on reaching an agreement before Trump takes office in January, but lessons from the past year show these expectations are far from guaranteed.

While some current and former Israeli officials believe the war — which has almost entirely destroyed Gaza and displaced 90% of its population — has fulfilled its objectives, many voices in Israel still advocate for its continuation, while others call for its end.

What do supporters of the war in Israel say?

Supporters, including Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, state that the war will continue until its objectives are achieved.

These objectives vary even among war supporters. Netanyahu claims the war will persist until Hamas’s ability to govern Gaza is eradicated.

Even if the war ends, Netanyahu envisions Israeli security control over Gaza, with forces stationed in strategic areas such as the Philadelphi Corridor (along the Gaza-Egypt border) and Netzarim Junction.

Other right-wing figures, such as Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich, advocate for reoccupying Gaza, building settlements, and encouraging residents to emigrate.

What do opponents of the war in Israel say?

Opponents argue that the main priority should be the return of Israeli hostages from Gaza, even if it means ending the war.

They accuse Netanyahu of prolonging the conflict for personal reasons, given the threat by Ben-Gvir and Smotrich to topple his government if he signs a deal.

They believe the Israeli military has achieved significant victories, including dismantling Hamas’s military leadership and capabilities, making another surprise attack like October 7 highly unlikely.

What does Hamas want?

Hamas demands the complete withdrawal of Israeli forces from Gaza, the release of large numbers of Palestinian prisoners, and the lifting of the decade-long blockade on Gaza.

What does the international community want?

The international community seeks an immediate end to the war to allow for Gaza’s reconstruction and to address the prolonged humanitarian crisis.

What does Donald Trump want?

President-elect Donald Trump has stated his desire to avoid wars and to facilitate a ceasefire agreement in Gaza before his official inauguration. Unlike Joe Biden, who failed to impose a ceasefire despite his declarations, Trump is seen as capable of exerting pressure to end the war if he so chooses.