Trump’s Peace Efforts: Moscow and Kyiv ‘Further Than Ever from a Settlement’
Despite intense diplomatic efforts led by White House envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner between Moscow and Kyiv, the prospects for peace in Ukraine remain limited, amid Russia’s insistence on its conditions and Western differences over the contours of any potential settlement.
As part of a renewed diplomatic initiative, Witkoff and Kushner, acting as White House envoys, travelled to Moscow at the end of this week to meet Russian President Vladimir Putin. They then headed to Kyiv for talks with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, who said they had presented him with some “valuable ideas”.
Slim Prospects
However, as the war approaches its fifth year, the chances of success at the negotiating table appear slim, and the conflict is not expected to end before the upcoming US midterm elections in November.
According to an analysis published by Responsible Statecraft, Putin will most likely continue to change the rules of the game until he achieves his core objectives: Ukraine’s neutrality and the political removal of Zelensky.
The website noted that more than a year has passed since US President Donald Trump met with Putin in Anchorage, yet the US administration has been unable to deliver on the compromises that were proposed at that summit.
The most prominent settlement proposal was for Russia to agree not to occupy the remaining cities in Donetsk that are still outside its control, and instead reach an agreement to share control.
However, the proposal represents a risk for Putin, who is demanding the entire Donbas region. There has been clear frustration on the Russian side over the belief that the “spirit of Anchorage” was nothing more than a mirage, coupled with the perception that Trump was unable to persuade either the Europeans or Zelensky to accept a compromise aimed at achieving peace.
There is also no evidence of any shift in the position of Britain or Europe. John Sawers, the former head of Britain’s MI6 intelligence service, recently said that peace talks with Russia appeared impossible.
The slogan “Ukraine can win” also appears to have evolved into an obsession dominating European elites since the beginning of the war.
Amid disagreements related to the war against Iran, Trump will not be able to overcome European resistance to peace in Ukraine anytime soon, according to Responsible Statecraft. The website said that Putin understands this and has therefore redirected Russian military efforts towards recapturing what remains of the Donetsk region.
Russian forces are now making gradual advances towards the cities of Kramatorsk and Sloviansk. Evidence suggests that improvements in Russian tank armour technology are gradually reducing the effectiveness of Ukrainian drone defences. Estimates regarding the time required to take control of Donetsk vary from the end of this year to the end of 2027.
During this period, Ukraine will face a harsh winter that will further worsen the deterioration of its electricity and heating infrastructure. Europe, meanwhile, will have to find ways to finance the continuation of the proxy war, while more military personnel and civilians will lose their lives.
According to Responsible Statecraft, “in the meantime, Zelensky will face increasing pressure to step down amid continuing corruption scandals and opposition from prominent figures inside Ukraine, including his former defence minister, Mykhailo Fedorov”.
American Efforts
At the same time, Russia has also suffered during this war and cannot continue fighting forever. However, Putin believes that the political and economic capacities of Ukraine and its Western allies will be exhausted before Russia’s own resources, as Russia possesses the manpower, financial reserves, energy supplies and industrial base required to continue the war, according to the same source.
Putin’s fundamental objective has always been Ukraine’s neutrality. He is likely to seek a treaty-based commitment preventing any further expansion of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). He also wants Zelensky to fall from power and, until these two objectives are achieved, “he will not rush to commit to peace”.
This does not mean that Putin does not want a settlement. Speaking about the need for peace during the annual Eastern Economic Forum in Vladivostok last week, he stressed the role that other countries, including China, could play, according to Responsible Statecraft.
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi also renewed his call for Putin to move from “an endless war to ending the war” during a recent Shanghai Cooperation Organisation meeting held in Bishkek.
The White House wants to bring the war in Ukraine to an end, which could give Trump a boost ahead of the upcoming midterm elections in November.
In his book The Art of the Deal, Trump writes: “The best thing you can do is deal from strength, and leverage is the biggest strength you can have. Leverage is having something the other guy wants… or, better yet, needs… or, best of all, simply can’t do without.”
Despite the challenges the war has imposed on Russia, Putin may feel that he holds the initiative. If Trump is unable to persuade Ukraine and Europe to reach a compromise for peace, Putin will then begin considering how to increase the cost of any agreement after taking Donetsk. The most important question, according to Responsible Statecraft, is: what will that cost be?
