The Quantum National Security Crisis: A U.S.-China Race for the World’s Secrets
For more than seven decades, technology and innovation have continuously reshaped the maps of power, influence, and national security around the globe.
Atomic and hydrogen bombs established the principle of nuclear deterrence during the 1940s and 1950s. In the 1970s and 1980s, microelectronics enabled the development of stealth and precision weapons and gave rise to early digital networks.
The 1990s witnessed the transformative impact of the internet and the Global Positioning System (GPS), revolutionizing communications. Today, artificial intelligence powers autonomous weapons systems and significantly enhances cyber capabilities.
However, according to an analysis published by Foreign Affairs, the next major challenge on the horizon is neither a new weapon nor a more advanced communications network. Instead, it is a computer capable of unlocking the world’s secrets.
The analysis argues that quantum technologies are poised to transform countless fields, from exposing national security secrets to expanding military influence. National security experts cited by Foreign Affairs describe the issue as one of the most significant technological and strategic challenges of the twenty-first century.
Capabilities Beyond Traditional Computing
Quantum technologies exploit the physical properties of subatomic particles, enabling tasks that conventional technologies cannot perform.
These capabilities include highly precise positioning without reliance on networks or satellites, as well as the potential to break encryption systems currently used to protect medical records, financial transactions, and state secrets.
According to the analysis, a conventional computer would require approximately 300 trillion years to break a 2048-bit RSA encryption key using brute force methods. A sufficiently advanced quantum computer could theoretically accomplish the same task in less than eight hours.
Collecting Data for the Future
Although no quantum computer currently possesses this capability, U.S. intelligence agencies believe that America’s adversaries are already collecting encrypted U.S. data and storing it until quantum decryption technologies become available.
The analysis suggests that China and Russia are not waiting for practical quantum computers to emerge. Instead, they are gathering encrypted American secrets in the hope that these data will remain valuable when the capability to read them becomes available—whether in five years or ten.
A Quantum Leap in Encryption
The threat quantum computing poses to national security is difficult to overstate.
Most current encryption systems rely on the difficulty of solving specific mathematical problems using conventional computers, such as factoring large numbers into their prime components.
Quantum computers, however, are expected to perform these operations far more efficiently, potentially allowing them to break encryption and access sensitive data relied upon by governments, institutions, and corporations.
While the arrival of such a machine remains uncertain, recent advances suggest that some commonly used encryption methods could become vulnerable within the coming years.
Quantum Sensors and the Battlefield
The implications of quantum technology extend beyond encryption and into sensing technologies.
Quantum sensors can measure time and variations in gravitational and magnetic fields with unprecedented precision and sensitivity.
These capabilities could eventually be used to detect stealth vehicles or guide military forces in environments where GPS signals are blocked, jammed, or unavailable.
This is particularly important for the United States given China’s progress in GPS-jamming technologies, which threaten systems relied upon by the U.S. military and its allies for precision-guided munitions and drone operations.
China and the BeiDou-3 System
China now operates its own navigation network, BeiDou-3, allowing it to deploy powerful jamming systems in areas such as the South China Sea without disrupting its own military capabilities.
In this context, quantum sensors represent a potential alternative to satellite-based navigation systems by providing independent sources of positioning and timing without requiring external signals.
American Leadership and Chinese Investment
For now, the United States maintains a technological lead in quantum hardware.
Much of this progress is driven by the private sector through companies such as Google and IBM, along with numerous startups.
Meanwhile, China has designated quantum technologies as a strategic priority in its 2026–2030 Five-Year Plan. Most research and development activities are concentrated within government institutions, including the Hefei National Laboratory.
Competing Technological Blocs
As competition shifts from scientific research to large-scale investment, rival international blocs are beginning to emerge in the quantum field.
The United States has joined allies including France, Japan, and United Kingdom in establishing the Quantum Development Group, a coalition of thirteen countries aimed at securing global supply chains and protecting security interests linked to quantum technologies.
Meanwhile, China is strengthening cooperation with the BRICS countries, particularly Russia, which possesses significant expertise in physics, mathematics, and cryptography.
The China–Russia Quantum Partnership
Public information about Russian quantum efforts remains limited. However, Russia’s expertise in encryption algorithms may contribute to the development of effective quantum computing systems.
Since the outbreak of the war in Ukraine in 2022, Russia and China have expanded their technological cooperation.
In late 2023, the two countries announced the creation of a secure quantum communication link connecting Chinese and Russian satellites and ground stations separated by approximately 2,400 miles.
China also conducted a similar experiment with South Africa in early 2025 across a distance exceeding 8,000 miles.
Quantum communication relies on physical principles that make eavesdropping immediately detectable, as any interception attempt disturbs the signal itself.
A Race for Quantum-Resistant Encryption
The United States has begun preparing for these challenges through an initiative launched by the National Institute of Standards and Technology in 2016 to develop algorithms capable of resisting quantum-computing attacks.
In August 2024, NIST approved its first set of quantum-resistant algorithms, and major internet companies have already begun implementing them.
Large technology firms, including Google and Meta, are already using forms of post-quantum encryption, although adoption remains incomplete across all internet protocols.
Preparing for a Post-Encryption World
The analysis concludes that governments and companies must prepare for the possibility that a powerful quantum computer may arrive sooner than expected.
This includes identifying sensitive data that may become vulnerable in the future, assessing the consequences of potential exposure, and developing contingency plans.
It also emphasizes the importance of replacing old passwords and authentication keys after transitioning to quantum-resistant systems, since previously intercepted communications could still be decrypted and used to gain access to critical infrastructure.
Ultimately, the U.S.–China competition in quantum technology will continue to combine cooperation and rivalry. While both countries participate in international standards-setting initiatives and seek to avoid fragmentation of the internet and global supply chains, each major power will strive to achieve superiority in one of the most consequential technologies shaping the future of global national security.
