The United States and Escalation Against Cuba: Three Possible Scenarios

9th June 2026

2 minutes read

The United States and Escalation Against Cuba: Three Possible Scenarios

Cuban President Miguel Díaz-Canel has stated that the United States is considering three possible scenarios against his country: provoking a social upheaval through economic pressure, taking control of the Cuban economy, or resorting to military aggression.

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In an interview with the Spanish news website eldiario.es, published Monday on the Cuban presidency’s official website, Díaz-Canel explained: “One scenario is to provoke a social explosion by suffocating the economy, allowing such unrest to provide the United States with an opportunity to intervene in the country under the pretext of humanitarian assistance.”

Relations between Cuba and the United States have deteriorated significantly since January, following Washington’s imposition of an oil embargo on the island and several rounds of sanctions targeting Cuban entities and officials. In addition, the U.S. judicial system issued an indictment against former President Raúl Castro in a case dating back to 1996.

The Trump administration considers the communist island, located approximately 150 kilometers off the coast of Florida, to be an “extraordinary threat” to U.S. national security. Despite these tensions, both governments maintain that diplomatic communication channels remain open.

Díaz-Canel also described a second scenario involving a “forced dialogue” accompanied by the “maximum level of pressure” on the Cuban economy. According to him, this strategy is intended to “take control of the Cuban economy” with the ultimate goal of promoting a “change in the political system.”

This scenario comes at a time when several foreign companies, including international hotel groups, have announced partial or complete withdrawals from Cuba out of concern over potential U.S. sanctions.

The Cuban president added: “The third scenario is military aggression.”

Díaz-Canel emphasized that these possibilities are not Cuban fabrications but are based on repeated statements made by U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio and President Donald Trump.

In response to these potential threats, the Cuban president stressed the need for the country to be prepared to defend itself in order to avoid any “surprise” and any “defeat.”