Trump and Iran: 4 Possible Scenarios, Including “Shock and Awe”

7th February 2025

2 minutes read

Trump and Iran: 4 Possible Scenarios, Including "Shock and Awe"

The relationship between the United States and Iran is witnessing a dangerous escalation, especially amid mutual threats exchanged between the two parties.

Tensions have intensified following statements by U.S. President Donald Trump, who asserted that he had devised a detailed plan to wipe out Iran if he were to be assassinated, according to The Sun.

These threats come after reports of an alleged Iranian plot to target Trump before the November elections, raising questions about the potential U.S. response.

While the United States has several military options—ranging from precision airstrikes, targeting nuclear sites, launching large-scale attacks under the “shock and awe” strategy, to striking Iran’s allies in the region—some analysts warn that confrontation with Iran may not be an easy task.

According to The Sun, here are four possible ways Trump could respond to an Iranian assassination attempt:

Decisive Strike Against Iranian Leaders
Trump previously employed a “decisive strike” strategy in 2020 to kill Qassem Soleimani, commander of Iran’s Quds Force.
Similar strikes could target Iran’s military and political leaders with precision missiles rather than bombing cities or residential areas.

Targeting Nuclear Sites
The objective might not be limited to Iran’s leaders; Trump could collaborate with Israel to strike Iran’s nuclear facilities.
In December, Netanyahu’s government confirmed that it would seize any opportunity to attack Iran, especially after its regional allies weakened.
The U.S. has not yet confirmed its involvement in such strikes, but reports suggest Trump is considering multiple options to disrupt Iran’s nuclear program, including airstrikes.

Shock and Awe Strategy
The U.S. could launch an overwhelming attack against Iran.
It is believed that American officials already have a secret contingency plan for any major conflict in the Middle East, with the “TIRANNT” strategy dating back to the Iraq War in 2003.
According to a 2007 academic study, a potential U.S. attack could include massive air and missile strikes targeting 52 strategic sites, including cultural centers, military bases, and infrastructure. The goal would be to elevate the “shock and awe” strategy to an unprecedented level.

Striking Iran’s Allies Through Proxy Wars
Trump could order strikes against Iran-backed militias across the Middle East, given Tehran’s support for several armed groups, including:

Western Maximum Pressure Campaign to Prevent Iran from Acquiring Nuclear Weapons
“Iran Nuclear Deal”: Diplomatic Efforts to Contain Escalation
- Hezbollah in Lebanon,
- Hamas in Gaza,
- The Houthis in Yemen,
- Iran-backed militias in Iraq.

Aaron David Miller, a former negotiator for the Middle East peace process, told The Telegraph: “Washington must limit Iran’s maneuvering space for proxy attacks and deliver harsh strikes against its forces in Iraq and Syria.”